Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts

bbc.com ^ | 5/14/2019 | David Robson

[rktman]

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Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change.

n 1986, millions of Filipinos took to the streets of Manila in peaceful protest and prayer in the People Power movement. The Marcos regime folded on the fourth day.

In 2003, the people of Georgia ousted Eduard Shevardnadze through the bloodless Rose Revolution, in which protestors stormed the parliament building holding the flowers in their hands.

Earlier this year, the presidents of Sudan and Algeria both announced they would step aside after decades in office, thanks to peaceful campaigns of resistance.

In each case, civil resistance by ordinary members of the public trumped the political elite to achieve radical change.

There are, of course, many ethical reasons to use nonviolent strategies. But compelling research by Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard University, confirms that civil disobedience is not only the moral choice; it is also the most powerful way of shaping world politics – by a long way.

Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.

[momincombatboots]

We let them turn us into a #mobacracy. It was us that compromised the uncompromising.

[Svartalfiar]

I also wouldn't be surprised if apples were being compared with oranges here: Conflicts in which one side attempts to employ peaceful protests (or views non-violence as a feasible alternative) are probably fundamentally different than conflicts in which at least one side views violence as the "best" option (or is totally exaspirated).

Hm. Does the research account for all the nonviolent protests that turned violent? No matter the final outcome, just about EVERY violent protest should count as a failed non-violent protest. Most protests do not go straight to violence as option the first.