[daniel1212]

Excerpts from longer article .

It has seemed to me that for a long time the NOAA Long-Lead Forecasts ("Experimental") almost always predict overall warmer than average temperatures for the U.S., as it does now:

- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php

There are many of these to choose from under the heading of "OFFICIAL Forecasts" here .

However, I never saw if and how these forecasts corresponded to reality, until I came across the Climate.gov blog which the article above is from. The author of which is to be commended for annually issuing a review of long-range meteorological Winter (Dec. thru Feb.) forecasts versus what was observed. One of the pages of which has a list of long-range predictions going back many years. And which confirms that for a long time (at least since the winter of 2006-2007) the NOAA almost always overall predicts warmer or much warmer than average, but which most often was not the reality.

Read as sets of 2 lines each, with the top row (under the date) being the forecast, which is followed by the observed reality: " alt="" border="0">

And here is the image for Dec. 2016-Feb. 2017

Forecast and reality for Dec. 2017 thru Feb. 2018 is below:

Of course, living in Ne England means that weather is very hard to predict, but we welcome climate change when it means warmer weather versus cold. Yet thank God for the His grace of His reality in any weather or state.

[Paladin2]

"With the season having ended"

Uh, NOT so much yet...

[Paladin2]

[Paladin2]

I think studded tires are legal in Mont. through May.

YMMV....

[outofsalt]

Actually, that's not climate, that's the seasonal forecast and they didn't even come close. weaterbell.com and Joe Bastardi did much better. He had the cold a little more east of where it was.

[butlerweave]

Did the People in Los Angeles have to buy sweaters and rain gear ?

[crusty old prospector]

As a petroleum geologist, if I had a track record like that I would be fired. Of course, their long range forecasts are all about an agenda.

[bgill]

The icebergs haven’t melted causing entire continents to flood so we did pretty good.

[an amused spectator]

We missed the snowfall record by 2 inches in February [7 and a half feet] - but unlike the record month 20 years ago, there wasn't one day that was above freezing.

We ran out of places to put snow.

In the record month, there were 6-7 days where it got into the mid-40s, reducing the snow on the ground.

[Mom MD]

Coldest March on record in the Denver metro. April wasn’t much better...

[metmom]

Warmer than average for NY???????????

I find that hard to believe.