[tlozo]

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan, Americans could face a decisive military defeat,' the Commission said in a November report...Work also warned that US military bases across Europe and the Pacific are not equipped to handle the fire they would face in a high-end conflict.

The scenarios also seem to assume first strike by China or Russia

[AndyJackson]

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan, Americans could face a decisive military defeat"...

One of the problems is that there is this little thing called geography. Some places are very easy for others to get to and very hard for the US to get to. "Spheres of influence" is not a political abstraction. It is a law of physics. Russia can project power a couple hundred miles a whole lot easier than we can project power a few thousand. The logistics costs alone prove the point. It's why offense requires a large multiple of defensive power in order to overcome defenses. The guy who is there has a huge advantage. It's why maneuver warfare works - deny the defender the advantage of being there by going somewhere else.

Think of it the other way around. Imagine the survivability of a Russian Task Force in the Gulf of Mexico with few narrow passages out and utterly surrounded by hostile forces. The Gulf is unquestionably indisputably ours.