Believe it or not I heard that expression, the creek don’t rise, referred to the Creek Indians uprising...It made sense because what cowboy on a horse worth his salt can’t cross creek?
“It made sense because what cowboy on a horse worth his salt can’t cross creek?”
Good Lord willing and the creek don’t rise was used by country folks, especially in Appalachia, for generations.
It meant that if the Lord saw fit to let you live to the day/event in question and the creek wasn’t too rain swollen to wade across then you would be at the place/event in question. Most country folks walked where they needed to go. Horses weren’t commonly ridden by farmers.
http://appalachianmagazine.com/2017/04/23/appalachian-language-lord-willing-and-the-creek-dont-rise/
Most researchers disagree that the saying had anything to do with the Creek Nation.
I have no idea of the origin of that saying but many a fine cowboy were actually drowned in flooded fast moving creeks back in the day. It was indeed a hazard for people traveling by wagon, buggy, horseback, or foot and still today rapidly running water takes away cars and people. Especially in areas of flash floods.
My husband is a cowboy and about 15 years ago he had to save another cowboy from drowning while crossing flooding creek. The other man’s horse fell/rolled with him in the water. My husband nearly drowned trying to save him. No easy task to do a water rescue while wearing chaps, coat, boots...especially when the person you are saving is wearing the same.
Never underestimate the power of water, especially moving water.