Anyone Have Their Head in the Sand Still? (Market is Being Pushed Down)

12-17-18 | Self

[Dartoid]

Phew...haven’t paid attention much

[familyop]

Some clients have brokers, advisers or managers who study investment trends and patterns.

Others (including governments) have teams of quiet, nearly unseen advisers who issue reports after periodically traveling the world to get the most up-to-date information on what governments, businesses and populations are doing. Those team members spend their lives studying not only market trends but also histories of civilizations, industries, wars and knowledge from other fields. They study reactions of the minds of the world—individuals and groups—to many stimuli.

One was a friend who traveled from New Zealand once a year to spend some time in our Library of Congress. He also sometimes visited many very scary places in dark parts of the world before composing his reports to contribute to a team.

So it all matters. That includes extreme biases and vanities in some individuals with much influence over markets. But beyond trying to instigate a few messes, they cannot the world. And they cannot control us, if we don’t allow them to. We have some power over their futures, though. We only need to practice, until we realize it and use it.

[familyop]

My point is that macroeconomics goes much further than realized by academics who dish out the same overviews with the same paltry few, disparate bits of details from semester to semester.

[mrsmith]

“What we want to see in 2019 ...”

Well, there’s China. It’ll be a miracle if they change their ways without Trump pulling the trigger on tariffs. That will be costly for the market in the short run to adjust to: reallocating capital, supply chains, whatever.
And, because it is temporarily a “downer”, Trump has to do it wsoon so the economy can recover ell before elections.- best before next Christmas.,
Maybe China will show sense this time, but its more likely they’ll cause trouble.

[sparklite2]

Yep. Cutting back on the size of government is the key to surviving, so naturally it won’t happen. All I can do is apologize to the grand-kids for having already spent everything they will earn.

[moovova]

Pungee stakes.

[CincyRichieRich]

My point is that macroeconomics goes much further than realized by academics who dish out the same overviews with the same paltry few, disparate bits of details from semester to semester.
...
Salient point sir...I never give much credit to folks who look at the market in a vacuum devoid of political, e.g., nefarious, fascist/crony/socialist variables...

[A Cyrenian]

Great post. I'm glad you brought this to the front burner.

I agree with you on the behavior of the market. It doesn't pass the eye test when considering other factors (the economy, unemployment, increase in jobs).

Almost feels like the country has a cancer and we're trying to figure out what's wrong.

[TruthFactor]

War is coming to America. It can’t go on like this. We’re in for a reset.

[familyop]

I would guess that with interest rates going up, that conservatives with assets would hold onto some of them with cash, bonds, etc., until the lefties have shot their wad with their sneaky political short campaigns. If stocks are still down in a couple of years, they might take another look at some investments in businesses with potential. Just watch out, if yields go a little scary high (rapidly decreasing bond prices possible being a prompt to be the first out in the run). But that’s only my guess, and I don’t know anything. ;-)

[Professional]

Nice post. Very well written.

[sparklite2]

know who was in office by the adjectives they use

---

Here’s a way to tell if a writer is trying to manipulate you.
Read some of his stuff, then read it again deleting all the adjectives. The difference in mindset you get between the two readings is the degree of manipulation being used. This goes for all writers, liberal and conservative alike.

[familyop]

"War is coming to America. It can’t go on like this. We’re in for a reset."

That's a possibility in the future. Good point. But more surveillance and skulking with come against the assets of some conservatives well before intensified civil strife.

Better secure your Internet use and personal information. And each, be humble and good to neighbors in your locales. Avoid vices and debts. Be like a politician, and make as many friends as possible (something new to me, too, but necessary). Many things come into good security, including, for example, home landscaping and related psychology. And make your secured place look friendly and benign...even "cute."

[familyop]

Thank you!

[DuncanWaring]

Not a reset, a Cleansing.

Old Testament in scope and nature.

Probably based on extreme cold.

[plain talk]

I hope someone can pull me out of this pit.

I doubt it. You are in pretty deep. :-)

An enemic economy under Obama with artificially low interest rates is passed to Trump. Trump slashes regulations, taxes and the economy and jobs came roaring back. Lots of businesses are hiring with record low unemployment. Predictably the fed stopped holding rates down artificially and let them start returning to normal levels. Rising interest rates along with the China tariff battle has caused the high flying stock market into a correction. None of this is surprising for a long term investor.

Regarding the Fed -- Trump picked Jerome Powell.

[CincyRichieRich]

War is coming to America. It can’t go on like this. We’re in for a reset.

...
Some sort...asymmetrical...we’re in one now, beyond just war of words. Watching the yellow vest thing.

[damper99]

My advice: Sell! Sell! Sell! It will be worse than 1929 and the Hoover years! Instead of soup kitchens we will have EBT line.

[familyop]

"Salient point sir..."

Thank you. And yes, everyone has biases.

But although some people can afford to toss large sums of money at efforts towards monopolies, dictatorships and slavery, such people have been doing so for quite some time. Yes, it's increasing. But also remember that they don't want to start something that will come around and take a bite out of their assets. We can use that.

We can also toughen up and use their weight against them. When they push downward, recede. Let their momentum go farther than they intended. When they back off, push upwards. Generally, they don't want markets of any kind to change.

They are really terrified of changes. When they are desperate enough in their personal biases and political vanity to cause a change themselves (like a quick campaign of shorts, coordinated with a propaganda flood sponsored by them), they want the economic consequences of their action to be contained and limited enough to be safe for them.

Czechoslovakians and Poles started the fall of the Soviet Union with "nonpolitical politics": generally, doing what they each believed to be healthy and good despite the policies of the ruling, hard socialist political class. They also developed their own personal austerity measures into little sciences to strangle upstream influences. Political changes often start with social changes.

We can reset our language and activities. Granted, we don't want to indulge in any kind of strike at this point in time, and we don't want violence. But we can practice our own social engineering by refusing at this point in time to go along any more with much of the linguistic activism injected into our language over the past 40 years.

And there are more than a few companies that we don't need to be buying from. As a matter of course, we might be seeing, in part, a tantrum from some who are angry about our diversions of business away from a few companies. Which brings us to further recent delineations in political philosophy between states.

Big Investors Have Clout. They Can Use It With Gun Makers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/05/business/dealbook/investors-gunmakers.html

So some of the big ones have been losing market share. It's not good that some big ones have slowed down, but there is the benefit of a more distributed industry and more distributed skills.

Small assault-style rifle firms thriving under activists' radar
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns-manufacturers-insight/small-assault-style-rifle-firms-thriving-under-activists-radar-idUSKBN1OG1BZ

[familyop]

"My advice: Sell! Sell! Sell! It will be worse than 1929 and the Hoover years! Instead of soup kitchens we will have EBT line."

That's a good idea for blue state interests. While they're cutting their legs out from under themselves, more localized purchases and a new purpose for victory gardens would be better in red states.