One of the 53 is Mitt “I voted for my wife” Romney. Then there are Murkowski and Collins of course. That gets it to 50/50. Pence is going to be a busy.
Does that or does it not account for Doug Jones being hit by a bus?
Murkowski and Collins loom large mainly because of Supreme Court nominations. They're likely to flip against a presumptive pro-life nominee who misses even one beat on the "I respect precedent" and "there are no clear statements on abortion in my record" Kabuki dance. The situation is still close but not nearly as dire on most other issues.