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I have some doubt to this; China is mostly dependent upon the US $$ to maintain its role as super power... yes, they are getting closer and closer - ready to confront us here and there: but not militarily! Even now their economy has the flu.
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You make a good point. Perhaps I should place the interdiction of China's natural resources a little later in the struggle ... after conventional Trade War tactics have been exhausted. But the threat is always there.
Keep in mind that ultimately world power, including the US Dollar, is based upon the flows of energy. China has almost NONE, and the U.S. Navy has the power to shut down their imports. GAME OVER if that happens (or it gets Very, Very HOT, very fast)
Everything China is doing in the South China Sea, as well as their space program, is focused on breaking free of the potential encirclement/strangulation by the USA.
We are NOT an empire; but, I still love the analogy of the longest surviving empire in world history, the Egyptian Pharaohs. Their power was military control of the waters of the Nile.. They added a priesthood around that and lasted for thousands of years.
America's control of MidEast oil (along with North Sea routes and our own) not only supports our US Dollar, but is tantamount to the Pharaohs' control of the Nile.
The global dollar-based financial system is part of this control, but ultimately the U.S. Navy is the real power (backed by Space assets, as POTUS has become fond of pointing out).
I agree that you make some compelling and thought provoking points. As to the 'trade war', when the Clintooon was Prez our trade deficit with China was about $45 bil year, and we screamed that it had to be equalized. Instead GWB and 0bama ran it up to almost $40 bil a month. Obviously they did that to raise China to super power status - and undoubtedly enrich themselves.
My somewhat uninformed opinion is that China is near the threshold of where she wants to be, and delights in flexing her muscles, but if she loses access to that $half tril annual income she may stumble. China would be foolish to precipitate a trade war where we stand to lose, say, $100 bil (being generous) and they stand to lose $half tril annually.
Still, history is filled with sovereigns making foolish decisions. For now China is attempting to undermine the Trumpster's domestic political support, I am sure with Democrap help. That ploy does not appear to be working, but like the price of milk and gasoline, that depends on control of the House next year.
I do not know the current facts about China's access to oil and energy, but after we sacrificed our finest to win the war in Iraq, a group of Democrap senators made sure that we could not get any of Iraq's oil, so China moved right in. Also, I understand China is Iran's main customer for oil - if they can get around the embargo. But my understanding of that situation has all the depth of a freon spill...