Posted on 11/01/2018 11:08:05 AM PDT by Signalman
Most polling suggests that Democrats should flip the House of Representatives in the midterm elections — but some analysts warned that nothing is certain a week before the pivotal contests.
“Our current hard count in the House is 212 D, 202 R, 21 toss-ups. Neither party is over 218, a majority. Democrats have the better chance to go over the top, since 20 of 21 tossups are currently held by the GOP. That doesn’t guarantee that the Democrats actually will,” Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, emailed The Post on Monday.
But another analysis on Monday predicted that Democrats had an 86.4 percent chance of capturing the House, while Republicans had only a 13.6 chance of keeping their majority.
Democrats, who would need to pick up 23 seats to gain control, reportedly plan to spend $143 million on TV ads in House races, compared to about $86 million for Republicans.
And even White House officials were pessimistic about their chances, with Bill Stepien, director of political affairs, already laying the groundwork to shift blame away from President Trump should the party lose the House.
Stepien argued in an internal memo obtained by Bloomberg News that the GOP has been hindered by historical headwinds, a wave of incumbent retirements and strong fundraising by Democratic challengers.
Team Trump still sees a possible path to victory, but there’s no longer talk of what Trump predicted would be a “red wave,” in which his energized base flocked to the polls to preserve GOP control of both houses of Congress.
The president himself last publicly used the “red wave” phrase in August, the news service reported.
Sabato said it was far less likely that Democrats could win the Senate, where the GOP holds a 51-49 seat majority.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Trump just said red wave yesterday. His team texted it to me too. Fake news.
Sigh. Ds do NOT need to “pick up 23.” They need to pick up 25 because we have two flips in MN that most people have conceded.
Can I have an update on the Senate Blue Wave? Are the Mob up to 60 seats yet? Can’t wait for the Blue Senate, can you?
Sabato? Guess we’ll gain seats in the House.
Sabato ate a huge helping of crow the day after the election in 2016 for his predictions, so my questions are:
1. Why do they keep going back to him for polling data; and
2. Why is he even employed?
I’m calling 240 or more R. Articles like this show their weakness.
Yawn...Larry is trying to play both sides...
Actually we have an open seat in PA and one in Nevada and one in Arizona that we most likely will get. So the dims will need 30.
So you still good with R +5 in the house? That’s close but I’ll take it.
227.
bfl
Yep.
What about NH5?
I also think NM1 is vulnerable.
From day one, my gauge has always been Trump rallies. Two years into his presidency, Trump can still bring out 10,000 people in the middle of the work week on Halloween night with no rock star entertainer headlining. No other politician can do that. People love him and his policies. If he can get that many people out to his rallies in every state he visits, one has to believe the turnout will be huge all across the country. MSNBC and CNN have low ratings. No one is watching. No one is buying newspapers. People are going elsewhere for their news now. We will win it all next week.
Can’t wait to congratulate you Wednesday!
And in 2016 the cable nets all covered it. Now, sometimes even Fox does not, or cuts away. But ALL THREE showed OPRAH's speech for Marxist Stacey Abrams today, in its entirety.
He always gets it wrong.
I have the R’s gaining 6-10 seats in the senate. The D’s were never going to take the senate this time. It was insane of them to even think it.
Democrat sanctuary state status is an invitation to illegals to in Democrat states. The illegals boost the population of these Democrat states, thereby increasing the number of congressional positions in liberal states. Via illegals, Democrats are stealing representatives from conservative states. The illegals don’t even need to vote for this to happen.
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