Two VA polling outfits did polling in August and September. Quinipiac did polling in may...the others in February june and July. All were undersampling Republicans by 10 points and there were many refusing to give their party affiliations. The Libertarian in one poll was at 4 per cent.
One major Newspaper was saying that while Kaine was ahead,he was still running like an underdog...I believe it. He knows about the undersampling going on in all of the Virgina Universities’ polling outfits and about the Kavanaugh affect and he also knows how Virginians still voted just enough to keep the state assembly in the Republicans column.(I live in the Richmond area) What Kaine has to worry about is if Virginians across the state vote in the same patterns that allowed the assembly to stay in Republican hands then he could still lose in a squeaker since the Senate race is an all over state election. Stewart will do better than expected...with most of the state polls from September to back in May showing 15 to 25 percent respondant refusing to state a candidate preference is very telling. There has nothing been done recently by any national polls so the RCP is still skewed from polls from late last February to mid September.
My Prediction...Kaine by 5 with 4 percent of the vote total going to the Libertarian candidate. Stewart has a very strong “gumba” following that might just show up and surprise folks. Powhatan County tends to vote in percentages way beyond others like it for example and I see a lot of Stewart signs up in Midlothian/Chesterfield...my neighbor for example.
Kaine is working it because he realizes the college student pollsters can be a bit over zealous and that Virginia still voted to keep the assembly still Republican.
Some thoughts to sober you: 1 out of 4 votes come from Northern Virginia where I am at. It's wonderful that Lee county votes 80% republican, but hardly anyone lives there. Both Arlington and Alexandria routinely vote 70 to 80% dems, then you add in Prince William, Loudoun and the big one Fairfax County (12.5% of all votes in the state are from from Fairfax), and you have a situation where the rest of the state needs to make up for a huge democrat lead from this area and it is almost impossible to do. The second largest number of votes come from Tidewater and at best it is now only about 50/50. Va Beach used to be a republican stronghold, but is no longer. The pubbies might eke out a 1 or 2% win in the city, but it is not close to what is needed. Obama won in Va. Beach during one of his elections.
So that leaves your area, the Richmond area which is still hanging in there, but there are not enough voters in your area to offset Northern Va. There are other areas, such as Rockingham county, surrounding Harrisonburg that are strongly republican - the Shenandoah Valley is a treasure trove for the pubbies, but again not enough voters.
The rule of thumb used to be if the Republican won 40% of the vote in Fairfax County, that would be enough for the candidate to win statewide. That is no longer true. I think Stewart gets 33% of the vote in Fairfax on election day.
I acknowledge there have been few polls in this race, but that is because it is not considered competitive. Honestly, I don't think I have seen one Kaine yard sign at all up here, but I'm guessing it's because voters assume he will win.
I hope you are right, but this state is not the same as it was 20 years ago. It is changing everyday to more blue.
I know my post was very negative concerning Stewart's chances next Tuesday, so I thought I would copy and paste what I just read in the theconservativetreehouse.com site:
A Annie Ok says: October 31, 2018 at 3:16 pm
I have been making calls to Virginia Beach to get people to the precincts to represent Corey Stewart (running against Tim Kaine.) This just in from a member of Corey Stewart’s paid staff: “This race is going to be very, very much closer than the media is predicting, according to our internal polling. So every big and little effort counts!” Also, heard through the same grapevine that Trump may be in Virginia Beach to boost Corey Stewart this Monday.
So, I may be happily wrong and I hope I am and could it be possible? We'll find out soon.