He completely flubbed the House map interpretation. Embarassing.
The colors are for incumbency, not shifts.
29 of 30 “tossups” are GOP incumbents, as are quite a few D-leaners. It’s this way because the Ds got spanked in 2016 and the GOP swept the battleground districts.
Ds have tried to hide the geographic shrinkage of their party by running up the score in loyalist districts. That’s how Clinton got wrecked in EV despite having more votes total, Ds ran up the score in NY/IL/CA.
Anyway, the reason to be reasonably confident the GOP keeps the House is that incumbency is quite powerful and it is overwhelmingly on GOP side, and this is not shaping up to be the kind of wave election that sweeps large numbers of incumbents out.
Ditto - he doesn’t understand the RCP model
You think Still read the map wrong?