See 538 today? Walking it back: “no evidence of D turnout.”
Wait a week and they’ll finally notice the Rs are turning out like crazy.
We have 14 data points now: AZ, OH (2 counties, including Cuyahoga), IA (2 counties), FL statewide +4 counties including Broward & Miami-Dade), WY, and TN (Knox Co.).
In all 14 the GOP trend is ahead of 2014 and in all but one ahead of 2016; and in all the Ds are behind their previous years.
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Still a little more than two weeks left, so I am worried about an October surprise against us, but the Dems haven’t been coordinated well, so I think it’s not very likely. They seem off message significantly.
While I do not have a twitter account, I am an avid reader of your tweets. As an actuary (now retired) the math underlying predictions of the outcome of the elections is of interest to me. I wanted to use this response to address some items that you have written and pose some comments/questions that can have influence.
1. I applaud your focus on actual results rather than polls which I believe are less accurate than ever for reasons that I will note later. You just stated that there were 12 data points all of which favored Republicans compared to recent voting history.
a. I have concluded that if the surge was evidence of additional R enthusiasm (Kavanaugh effect or whatever) then it should translate through every sector of voting – mail in, in person early and later voting. The probability that the most enthused voters will move up their timing of voting and will lead to a lower election day turnout is nil.
b. What are your thoughts on switches to the other party – R registrants voting D and D registrants voting R? For analytic purposes, it is probably best to consider this a wash and consider the difference at face value.
c. The key is the composition of independents. You have noted that there has largely been with a few exceptions) an increase in Republican registration figures since Nov 2016. Might this be from some of the independents moving to Republican thus decreasing the independent percentage who will vote R?
2. I think that some of the net increase in R registration since Nov 2016 reflects voters who voted Trump in 2016 and therefore overstates the increase that Trump will see in the future.
3. With respect to the public, where is the movement to the Ds?
a. It has been widely reported in polls that the black and Hispanic support is rising for Trump. (Lowest unemployment ever makes a difference). However, an increase in the black and Hispanic vote would more than offset this gain.
b. Walkaway movement – Including Kanye – I wonder what effect this will have. There will be an event in Washington (Oct 26 -28). I suspect the MSM will not cover this at all.
c. Trump’s success. You have noted that you have not met anyone who was a Trump voter that moved away. Many of the Never-Trumpers have moved back as Trump has delivered especially on judges. I discount the George Wills or Max Boot or any of these frauds.
d. Jobs not Mobs is a great slogan and metaphor for Trump’s success and Democrat lunacy.
4. Enthusiasm is the key factor. The premise of the Blue Wave is that Ds are enthused and Rs are complacent. With a low turnout of midterms this is the critical element. I do not think that anyone knows for certain as polls are either ineffective or intentionally misleading. I believe that the polling is worse than 2016. I also noted your comment from 538 regarding no evidence of D turnout advantage.
a. Trump undercount as voters afraid to tell posters they are Trump supporters. With the hostile environment getting worse, I believe that people are more reluctant to identify themselves as pro Trump. I think that this will translate into Rs as well.
b. Lower response rates result in a higher error margin. This exacerbates manipulation of results.
c. Key question is whether the crazies come out in force to spike the results? I see no evidence of this. It would have showed up in voter registrations – I am not aware that it has.
d. Kavanaugh effect/D lunacy – I believe this has galvanized Republicans. One other impact that I have not seen but I believe exists. The outrage has neutralized any complacency from those of us who are frustrated at the pace of taking down the deep state players. Trump can keep the release of documents as leverage.
Reasons for Optimism - What do we know:
A. Recent MSM articles about Senate and House has changed tone. The likelihood of the Senate switching has all but disappeared. The certainty of the House turnover has become hedging that it will be close. The hope of the elusive Blue Wave is present in the articles but is presented in the fantasy if everything goes right. My impression is that at the very least, they have some skepticism of the polls and probably realize the rigging that exists.
B. Trump effect. With Trump out there doing more rallies and being omnipresent in interviews (particularly in this last week), his message is coming across and will bear fruit particularly in red states. The Jobs not Mobs slogan is powerful.
C. Senate races:
i. Arizona. McSally was caught up in the Republican primary and started behind. The September polls are irrelevant. Sinema’s past comments are deadly to her. Combined with the increase in favorable Arizona party registration, she should be done.
ii. Tennessee and Missouri – The O’Keefe videos did damage. McCaskill asking Hawley to appoint a Special Council to investigate only highlights her phoniness. I guess she is a student of the Pocahontas school of media communication. Bredesen responded to the O’Keefe videos. Let’s hope there are more videos in more states.
iii. Heitkamp – How many times can a fork be stuck in and said she is done. The latest outing of the list of abuse survivors was breathtakingly poor.
iv. Potential R losses – The only one possible is Nevada and Heller is increasing his lead. No way can Cruz lose to O’Rourke – not in Texas. The most likely outcome is 0 Republican losses.
v. There is no way we should not prevail in Montana, Indiana, Florida. This would give us 56. If enthusiasm is on our side we could hit 60 or more.
D. R ground game. I recall seeing last month that Ronna McDaniel said that they have 4 times the volunteers/personnel that they had in 2016. I recently read that there was going to be a tremendous effort to reach out and contact the evangelical community. I would suspect that group to be most outraged by the D lunacy.
Lastly is the Unknown – October surprise. I believe that Trump has this covered. His plane ride with Rosenstein has given him maximum leverage to suppress a surprise report by Mueller prior to the election. Rosenstein would receive the report first and it would be up to him to divulge. Does Trump have something in waiting to spring? Not sure but I doubt it.
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