A Shift in GOP Fortunes

Cook Political ^ | October 19, 2018

[SMGFan]

The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well.

Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one seat, so the Senate would remain under GOP control, with the majority holding 50-52 seats. Today, a Republican net gain of a seat or two seems most likely, moving the GOP up to either 52 or 53 seats, though a gain of three seats or no net change are entirely possible. There remains some chance of Democrats picking up two seats and a majority, but those odds are long, no better than 1 in 5, and seemingly getting longer. Once you saw Republicans and conservative voters coming home and getting energized for the first time this election cycle, on top of this lopsided Senate map of seats overwhelmingly in GOP-friendly states, Democrats hopes went down precipitously.

[SamAdams76]

As I see it, three pick-ups in the senate is on the LOW side. I would actually be disappointed if it was only three. GOP has a real opportunity here to pick up 5-7, which would likely put the senate out of reach (for the Dems) until at least 2022. I think even the WV and NJ seats are in play for the Republicans and very gettable.

[rbg81]

Who led the out-of-control demonstrations on Capitol Hill against the Kavanaugh nomination have any understanding of how much damage they did to Democrats and the party’s chances of winning a majority in the Senate

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The big problem the Dems have is that their base is out-of-control Leftists. The Dems have to play to them to get them “fired up”. But getting them fired up only cause the rest of the country to recoil in disgust from their antics.

It is still to early to claim victory. But you ARE seeing a lot of backpedaling in the Media about the much vaunted Blue Wave.

[mrs9x]

My hope is that Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin are in play. We need to retire Sherrod Brown, Stabenow, and Tammy Baldwin.

[fortheDeclaration]

Agreed. We need a Red Wave!

[Nifster]

Cook is crap and has been

Following our own LS for the best predictions and out comes

[Tobias Grimsley]

I think it will definitely be a good\very good night for GOP on the Senate side...keep in mind that an additional +1 for Senate is that Jones (D) from Alabama will flip back to R’s in 2020...anything can happen in 2 years but we should get that back as well.

You can tell by the way that 538 and Cook Political are writing the articles now, that the chance of the house flipping are slipping away as we approach election day. We still have a ton of work to do, but I think we’ve got a great chance here.

Forget what you read...just like in 2016, what are your eyes telling you? What do you see? Massive Trump rallies that are bigger and more enthusiastic that in 2016...reason being is what Trump has accomplished in 2 years...this is a National Mid-term Election, make no mistake about it and Trump is leading the GOP charge!

[Tobias Grimsley]

+1 definitely