You are 100% right. More and more people are voting absentee/early because it is convenient and in FL you can freely do so.
I’ve done some analysis on about 30 counties which encompass 95%+ of the votes. I am throwing out some of the counties where the absentee numbers in are so low they aren’t worth analyzing. The numbers don’t add up to zero as the difference is the change in independents.
This is taking absentee votes comparing R/D percentages from 2014 to 2018 based on votes returned so far in 2018.
Charlotte - R -1.2%, D +5.1%
Collier - R 0.0%, D +0.6%
Escambia - R -3.1%, D +2.0%
Hernando - R +5.7%, D -4.6%
Indian River - R -8.4%, D +5.7%
Lee - R -0.6%, D +2.1%
Orange - R -4.1%, D +4.1%
Pasco - R -1.4%, D +0.9%
Pinellas - R +1.3%, D -0.2%
Sarasota - R -3.9%, D +6.4%
It’s not catastrophic or anything, but the 30k lead in votes is driven more by the counties the ballots are coming from so far.
Just looking at Lee (large number of returned ballots so far). Trending much like 2016.
https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf
I know you’ve got this. Very informative overall - appreciate the effort.
Look at Hillsborough, St. Lucie and Pinellas. Those large counties have a nice amount of returned ballots also - very favorable comparison SO FAR compared to 2016.