Remember, JLA, this is a FL pattern, that Rs lead in “absentee” mail in voting, sometimes by over 100,000 in the presidential year; Ds catch up rapidly with “walk-in early voting”; then election day usually is the decider.
Minion in 2012 led big in absentees, lost the walk-in early huge, won election day but not enough to overcome the walk ins.
One huge difference this year again is the sheer number of absentee ballots. It’s now supplanting early voting and election day voting.
It’s pretty impressive to watch this trend from 2010 to 2018.