Larry Schweikart @LarrySchweikark
1) Let me sum up many things, much of which you know.
2) Yertle does not have the votes to confirm Judge K, contrary to what it looked like just 12 hours ago. Manchin is as reliable as the Italian Army.
3) So that leaves us with the three RINOs.
5:06 PM - 28 Sep 2018
4) The painful truth is there is NO leverage at all against Flakey. I just spoke with a woman from his area here in AZ. Local SUPPORTERS are furious with him. These are the people who voted him in originally, both to the House and the Senate.
5) They can't hurt him, Yertle can't hurt him, and Trump really can't hurt him.
Now, realistically, if he EVER wants to work anywhere in the universe of Republican politics again, he has to vote for K. But he may have other plans, may want to go out as McTurd Jr.
6) I believe he was a "yes" just 24 hours ago, as was Tom Collins (following Flakey) & MurCowSki (ditto). Manchin-on-the-Hill would have jumped in to try to save his seat. But once Flakey bolted, we lost four.
7) In short, NO ONE knows how Flakey will vote. He has "said" He would vote yes if the Rs agreed to the investigation/extension. But he has proven himself already to be a liar.
8) Tom Collins & MurCowSki are a different ball of wax. They DO NOT want to vote for Judge K, not because he did anything but because he is too conservative & poses a (remote) threat of repealing RvW.
HOWEVER, they know that without rock-solid reasons & evidence, they must vote for him or lose GOP funding/funders/& face vicious primary challenges.
9) MurCowSki actually lost such a challenge before, before pulling a trick where she ran as an indie winning a three way vote, then reattaching herself to the GOP.
Slimy.
10) They are in a pickle. They want to vote no but don't have reasons & hope the FBI can supply one.
11) Let me give you a 30,000 foot view before I assess the DemoKKKrats' position---which ain't good.
12) In the larger scheme of things the Rs are going to win the Senate midterms big, maybe YUGE. I still think right now it's a 4-6 seat net gain, could drop to 3 but reach 9.
13) It's very important when you rant & rave about "never voting GOP again" that you realize a) we already kicked out Flakey & Corkscrewed; b) McTurd is dead; c) we will gain one more RINO in Minion; but d) of the other net gains, 3-5 will be conservative/Trumpers.
14) In addition, while I wouldn't ever think of him as a Trumper, McTurd's replacement Jon Kyl is vastly more conservative than McTurd. Martha McSally will be a much more conservative/reliable vote than Flakey.
15) So when you look at the math as "Trumpers" replacing . either non-Trumpers or RINO squishes, we are gonna gain about a net 6-7 MINIMUM. It's very possible though with victories in OH and WI we gain 7-8 more conservative senators.
16) In short, not only are we going to gain seats BIGLY, but we will be RELATIVELY increasing the "conservative quotient" of the Senate by about 25%!!!
17) The long-term significance of this is that Collins & MurCowSki & Minion will see their ability to screw things up slashed.
18) Yes, there is a second tier of jerkweeds like Burrito and Mel Tillis, plus Alexander the Lesser, but these guys have proven far more reliable in VOTES than the first tier of douchenozzles.
19) In summary, Judge K's fate rests in the hands of 3 people, 2 of whom have one set of incentives & #3 is so incoherent no one knows what he wants/will do.
20) But the GOP VOTERS have already rendered their judgment & after Jan 2019 a much different army comes to Trump's aid.
21) So what of the DemoKKKrats? If they defeat K have they won?
22) Yes, a battle. Quite possibly they lost the war.
23) First, as noted above, they will never again have an opportunity to split off a little cabal to thwart the will of the majority.
There will NEVER be another "thumbs down" moment.
24) Second, it's highly likely that a "no" vote by Manchin-on-a-Hill, Donnelly, or Testicles will play a significant role in the election. It may very well be the issue that tips in each state.
It won't hurt Heitcamp cuz she's already losing big. Ditto McCaskill.
25) I have not included WV in my list of flip states, so it could increase the Rs' margin.
26) More important, despite a few "I'm-gonna-burn-the-GOP-down" types, I think everyone realizes the K vote is not a "GOP" problem--it is a Three Cuckateers' problem.
27) Thus, minimizing, eliminating, or completely isolating the remaining two Cuckateers will have been accomplished after November, as I noted.
28) Instead, confirmed or not, the K nomination has inflamed & outraged the GOP like nothing I could have predicted.
29) Flakey and FinkStink have galvanized & energized the GOP base more than even Trump could. I don't think "enthusiasm" or "turnout" will be a problem now.
30) This means, in all likelihood, FinkStink handed the House to the Republicans.
31) But I'll end on a sour note:
Whether confirmed or not, the Judge K process shows that NO GOP nominee will EVER be confirmed with ANY DemoKKKrat votes that matter. (They may pile on if it's a done deal to save a seat, but not if the issue is in doubt).
“In short, not only are we going to gain seats BIGLY, but we will be RELATIVELY increasing the “conservative quotient” of the Senate by about 25%!!!”
Awesome. So this means the vote can be delayed past the midterms and he would win easily. Not that I want to see that happen because a hundred eighty thousand more accusers will be found. But it puts it in a good perspective.