I was making the point that Ted Cruz won by such a huge margin that there was no need for a high turn out in the GOP primaries. Usually, close contests bring in a higher turnout, yet Cruz managed to get over twice the votes that O’Rourke got in the primaries even with the GOP contest not close.
Can’t have it both ways... 2012 was an open seat and competitive, yet turnout was lower.
Turnout is driven by MANY factors... not simply, a competitive race.. that’s flappy lip pundit ignorance....
Yes, a highly competitive race can drive turnout... but down ballot and other races can enjoy high results that have nothing to do with their own races.
Competitive races for the other side, can also drive turnout for the other side in primaries as well... depending on the dynamics and psychology fo the race and the voters.
The problem in TX, and its bigger than Cruz, is simply COMPLACENCY... With less than 40% of voters bothering to vote even in a presidential year, there is indeed a very very real possibility that a D can win statewide... not because the state is suddenly blue, but because the larger conservative majority has grown so complacent that they are beaten because they don’t show up....
TX looks very much like, unless the GOP gets their GOTV efforts rolling, is likely to happen sometime in the reasonably near future. I expect Cruz to win this, but I also do expect the margin to be closer than it should be....
The D’s are motivated, and organized... 4 times more D’s showed up to vote in this primary than the 2012 primary, and that was a presidential year. ANd yes, GOP primary turnout was up significantly as well, which is a good general sign for Cruz as well.. but its clear that what’s going on in TX is not just simply media nonsense like there was with sneaker abortion girl a few years back... There are underlying currents that really exist. They are being oversold by the media, but they aren’t completely manufactured.
However with all that said, what’s going to happen, is going to happen... and when it does a retrospective will happen... One way or another in a few months this will be history one way or the other.