Something that won’t commence until I’ve been dead 200 years? Yawn.
I agree we’ll both be dead —but space mining won’t take 200 years.
More like 40-50 years.
Accelerating technological change is the reason. Continuously accelerting computer and network speeds also fast forwards event horizons.
The way to understand this in traditional american terms is with the story of thomas jefferson.
He was asked how long it would take to settle the american west after lewis and clark came back from the pacific in roughly 1808.
Jefferson said 3428 years and 150 generations.
Instead it took 100 years and 5 generations.
How did Jefferson come by his numbers and why was he off by so much?
Jefferson figured that it took 200 years to go 175 miles inland from the coast and civilize Charlottesville where he lived. He Learned from Lewis and Clark the USA is 3000 miles across. So he did the math.
Why was Jefferson so wrong?
Because two massive industrial revolutions came along in the 1830’s and 1880’s that brought the railroad, telegraph, the repeating rifle, the industrial revolution.
We are in the midst of an even greater acceleration today.
Likely no later than the 2040 work will begin on generation 1 maglev space launch vehicles. These will take down the cost of putting people into low space orbit to about $5000.
The first 1500 miles off planet is the most expensive part of any space journey.
The equivalent barrier in US history was the appalachian mountains. They were a barrier to westward expansion from 1650 to 1750 when daniel boone found a way through.
Similarly the first 1500 miles to low space orbit has proved to be a barrier. Likely it will be roughly 100 years from the 1950’s to the 2050’s before this expense barrier comes down.
But when it does the earth will look like a fly hatch on a pond in spring with immense numbers of people buzzing off the planet.
imho maglev launchers powered by 4th generation nuclear reactors will likely do the job.
https://phys.org/news/2012-03-maglev-track-spacecraft-orbit.html