Your reasoning is very similar to mine in all respects on this subject.
There’s this human idiosyncrasy where drastic or far out things will never happen to them. One of the best examples of the last 100 years are the Jews murdered by Hitler. Many just did not think it was real or it would affect them and just willingly got on the cattle cars and into the showers.
Americans will be the same when gun control comes about. The cops may not go door to door, but if such a law is passed and citizens are called to turn them in, I betcha 80 - 90% will be voluntarily turned in. Look at Australia.
Australia is quite different from the U.S. about this.
We see, when registration of semi-automatic rifles is called for, the civil disobedience rate is from 70%-95%, and this is in both East Coast states (New York, Connecticut) and West Coast (California).
The vast majority of people simply refuse to comply.