The war was lost before the first shot was even fired. The only possible way of the rebels winning was if a foreign nation recognized and assisted them, specifically Britain. However, the slavocracy badly overestimated the power of cotton, and underestimated Britain’s anti-slavery sentiments.
With slavery so openly and brazenly enshrined in the confederate constitution there wasn’t a snow balls chance in hell of Britain siding with them. And none of the other great nations at the time would do anything counter to England.
I do agree the North was in no danger of being invade/occupied by the South. Even Southerners knew that was an impossibility from day one.
Not really out of the Question in early 1862. Lord Palmerstone government was under considerable political pressure to recognized the Confederacy. The cotton embargo, did a lot of damage to the textile industry in England and France. This was translated into a call for the British government to intercede in our war. Palmerstone was seriously considering that action and was talking to the French about joint recognition of the Confederacy. When Lincoln issued the Emancipation proclamation, in late 1862,
the British and French Governments backed off due to strong anti slave sentiment in both countries. That, plus finding other sources of cotton for the textile industry pretty much insured that neither Britain or France would recognize the Confederacy or actively intervene in the war.