If the world were filled with investigators like you, all a bad guy would have to do is move a click or two up the complexity scale and thusly never worry about being caught by the likes of you! In fact, you turn into the bad guy's staunch defender against any other investigator that would come to a different conclusion, any one sufficiently more complex than the simplest way you can imagine!
Have you no circumspection to employ the concepts of evidence, logic and reason?