That our troops were successful in tuning back the Russian-Iranian advance across the Euphrates demarcation line (jointly drawn by US and Russia) was due mostly to surprise. The Russians had no air cover. Next time they will.
The 57s will guide the 35s in on US planes and their longer range BVR missiles will do the deed, while the 25s take on the ground troops. Throw in some TOSS-1As and the surprise could go the other way.
If your scenario pans out to be true someday, then that will lead to a broad escalation and open war between Russia and the US. Trump would almost be forced to escalate unless he does the wise thing and simply pulls us out. Either way he gets attacked as a war monger or a coward, it becomes an untenable position for him to be in, politically speaking!
One other point....a 500 man attempted attack on a US held positon is a major operation. The Americans now know to be aware that the Russians are willing to try major force against them. The Americans will be very difficult to surprise and dislodge along the lines you describe. The Russians now have to understand that they have majorly “PO’ed the Americans over there and I suspect an increased chill in Trump’s efforts to try to constructively engage with Russia will settle in. Trump almost has to put distance between us and Russia now. This is a major incident of aggression against us! Putin was playing chess by sending out his pawn mercenaries, but we don’t play chess, we play sledgehammer smash on the chessboard!
As for aircover...they bring their air cover in another attack with targeting missiles on our aircraft, we will bring everything in and now you have an airwar in the sky in addition to battles on the ground. We will be expecting what you describe and things will massively escalate. The back channel diplomacy lines must be white hot right now!
“The 57s will guide the 35s in on US planes and their longer range BVR missiles will do the deed, while the 25s take on the ground troops. Throw in some TOSS-1As and the surprise could go the other way.”
It’s not going to go like that. The result will be much the same. Putin knows it. They can only win when we don’t have the resolve to play their deadly game. Trump does.