The last few eruptions have been roughly 600,000 to 700,000 years apart, and the last was 630,000 years ago.
If it erupts next year, it won't be early; if it erupts in 10,000 years, it won't be late.
That about sums it up.
The damage zones vary widely from the past eruptions. The Ash and Kill Zone area from the map posted on the prior page are just wide approximations. Could be somewhat less or a lot larger with variable shape.
If this goes, I will attribute it to excesses of the Obama years but it will change all of our concerns.