6 GOP seats lean Dem
Toss Ups are 3 Dem 18 GOP
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
I no longer trust Charlie Cook.
I think the Cook political report is going to be really biased this year.
I look at 2018 as of NOW as this:
First, you can’t tell poop this early. If you want to start throwing predictions around in late August and September, then I will pay attention.
For all the hoopla about the dems and their money raising “crush” in the districts, I note how what fails to be mentioned is the fact that the DNC is broke. The Republicans have the RNC as a counter plus I refuse to believe that Trump does not a fund raising advantage. I think the Democrats have to raise moola in the districts or they would be toast.
Finally, there is no doubt the the GOP congress was up against it from the get go. First, they are, for the most part, not by of or for Trump. Second, they are the party in power when their party holds the presidency. The party out of power is always more motivated/desperate.
Given these two factors, turn out will be down for the GOP. The question the is how effective Trump will be in counteracting the low turnout and getting the voters to the polls. Will the voters respond to Trump on the campaign trail and say “I hate the GOP congress critters but I will still turnout for Trump” or will they stay home nonetheless.
We shall see.
As poorly as the gop-e has governed I can see a revolt of the faithful as in 2006-2008.
Even the partisan Mr. Cook has solid 168 Rep House seats and 49 likely/lean Republican. That makes 217, just one short of a majority.