Interesting read *Ping*
I had not thought of this. I took the news reports of Xis campaign against corruption at face value.
I had not occurred to me that the anti-corruption campaign was a façade for purging opposition or rivals.
Communist have not been so subtle in the past. I guess it is a convent ruse in a government with so much corruption. Is some member of the party causing you grief? Find out how he is paying to send his child abroad to college and accuse him of corruption.
Chinese economy rode the wave of financial bubble and grew fast. Its economy has not undergone restructuring and consolidation which can provide firm foundation for their rise to the next level. The shakeout comes with painful economic adjustment, and China is ill-equipped to handle it. A majority of Chinese are still poor, and serious economic downturn could lead to a life where they have to worry about getting the next meal everyday. Such a pain could easily lead to a popular revolt.
The share of aging population is also rapidly rising. Even if they somehow miraculously fend off an acute crisis, they could head into long-term stagnation like Japan with heavy debt burden. Keeping unity would be increasingly difficult. More prosperous regions would not want to share the burden caused by backward regions inside China. There will be strong temptation to break away and maintain their prosperity. In short, when push comes to shove, they want to go their way to save their ass.