My belief is that this scenario in some form is the most likely. Why were there 43 weapons in the room? Paddock was probably selling guns maybe in a fast and furious scenario. Maybe a couple of ISIS type customers took the opportunity to shoot up the crowd, kill Paddock and es ape down the stairs. With or without the assistance of the deep state.
related:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3592652/posts
...Prosecutors said that Al Bahnasawy also communicated with an undercover agent posing as an ISIS sympathizer about wanting to shoot up concerts cuz they kill lots of people.
.....
That ‘undercover agent’ might well have been Paddock.