Reducing juvenile arrests won't by itself end racial disparities: Opinion

http://www.nola.com/ ^ | 8/27/17 | Jarvis DeBerry

[Architect of Avalon]

A group that is convinced that its group identity is evil, and thus supposed to be a source of shame and guilt, won’t stand together as a group.

[Architect of Avalon]

People will always want freedom of association for themselves, especially when it plays into safety and prosperity, even though some sadly seek to deny it to others.

[kearnyirish2]

BJ Clinton furthered Sanger’s goals when he put restrictions on welfare; after insisting they weren’t breeding for free sh!t, the black birthrate quickly fell. Now the young welfare queens just have the one “golden ticket welfare bastard”; it is enough to give her a free apartment, food, cash benefits, Obamaphone, and college education if she wants it. The days of welfare sows trotting out 8 kids of various shades with 8 different last names are gone - and this played a big part in Hispanics passing blacks in population in 2000 (10 years earlier than projected).

[kearnyirish2]

Sure. Another obstacle to busing in my area is that whites are fleeing NJ altogether; a busload of black students would simply be swapped for a busload of Hispanic and Asian students.

[BBell]

My son went to school with a lot of black kids. White and Asian kids could get detention for burping in class. It took a lot more than that for black kids to get detention.

[The Antiyuppie]

I’m wondering, how can such a wildly disproportionate number possible be??? It’s like, no one wants to state the obvious.

I’d like to say it’s like an 800 pound animal in the room, but I can’t mention what kind of animal it might be because it isn’t politically correct.

[PapaBear3625]

If they eliminated the financial incentives for single motherhood, perhaps the mothers of the future criminals would pay more attention to birth control.

[PapaBear3625]

AN ESTIMATED 809,800 INMATES IN THE NATION'S PRISONS WERE PARENTS TO 1,706,600 MINOR CHILDREN AT MIDYEAR 2007

[ealgeone]

My first question is what is the ethnicity of those parishes?

[TXnMA]

"What percentage of all children in Orleans Parish are black?"

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Latest census for Orleans Parish:

Black = 60%

White = 30%

All other = 10%

(Not much rounding; the black & white numbers are almost exactly as shown)

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Since blacks are probably at least twice as fecund as whites nowadays, the B/W child ratio would appear to be significantly greater than the total populace ratio alone would indicate.

Another factor is that Blacks in Orleans seem to be concentrated in certain "Wards" (aka "ghettoes' elsewhere) -- which tends to increase the levels of lack of opportunity and lawless behavior (and "welfare kid" count?) within those concentrations.

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I don't have the time and energy to research detailed demographic statistics right now, but information on Married/unmarried, 2-parent vs 1-parent households and comparison of crime stats with Chicago , etc. should be useful for informing the arrest statistics.

Another informative exercise would be comparison with an urban area where the 2:1 B/W ratio in Orleans Parish is reversed (or, better, reflective of the national ratio:

White alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a) 76.9%

Black or African American alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a) 13.3%

(Source: www.census.gov/quickfacts

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Bottom line: My guess is that the overall welfare/overcrowding/poverty, employment, etc. statistics in Orleans Parish are so "stacked" as to force Blacks into an almost exclusive "criminal class" there. (Remember Katrina?)

But, you aren't gonna get the PTB in Orleans Parish to admit that! Rather than admit municipal failure, they definitely would rather lay the blame on some nebulous "unfair arrest rate", etc...

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The B/W ratio in Orleans Parish vs the same for the nation is so striking that I can't resist exploring it a bit more. Maybe I'll come back with stats and graphics...

[Tax-chick]

Thanks, that’s very informative. I agree that the percentage of 18-and-unders who are black is probably significantly higher than the overall population percentage.

[Molon Labbie]

And that is the very idea of racial profiling. See the irony?

Here in Missouri, the police have had to fill out racial profiling sheets on every traffic stop for the last seventeen years.

NOT ONE police officer has been successfully prosecuted for racial profiling. NOT ONE.

Yet the NAACP, ACLU, and BLM insist it is so rife that it must be a grand conspiracy.

Maybe its just what it is. In crime and in schools, bad behavior.

[TXnMA]

Here's one Pew study result on fertility by race:

[Tax-chick]

The aggregate variance by race is small, but I expect the local variance is a lot higher. For example, in some places, the white population is older and richer than the black population, and therefore less likely to have children.

In my neighborhood, though, many of the black residents are empty-nesters or retired people, while most of the young children are from Russian or Polish families or Latinos.

[trebb]

Those who are more “in-your-face” and open about breaking the law are also more likely to get caught breaking said law....non-Blacks need to stop being so dang sneaky and trying to hide what they do wrong.