Posted on 05/09/2017 11:20:14 AM PDT by BJ1
Last year I presented a paper called "Will Millennials Ever Get Married?" at SciPy 2015. You can see video of the talk and download the paper here.
I used data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to estimate the age at first marriage for women in the U.S., broken down by decade of birth. I found evidence that women born in the 1980s and 90s were getting married later than previous cohorts, and I generated projections that suggest they are on track to stay unmarried at substantially higher rates.
Yesterday the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) released a new batch of data from surveys conducted in 2013-2015. I downloaded it and updated my analysis. Also, for the first time, I apply the analysis to the data from male respondents.
Women Based on a sample of 58488 women in the U.S., here are survival curves that estimate the fraction who have never been married for each birth group (women born in the 1940s, 50s, etc) at each age.
For example, the top line represents women born in the 1990s. At age 15, none of them were married; at age 24, 81% of them are still unmarried. (The survey data runs up to 2015, so the oldest respondents in this group were interviewed at age 25, but the last year contains only partial data, so the survival curve is cut off at age 24).
For women born in the 1980s, the curve goes up to age 34, at which point about 39% of them had never been married.
Two patterns are visible in this figure. Women in each successive cohort are getting married later, and a larger fraction are never getting married at all.
By making some simple projections, we can estimate the magnitude of these effects separately. I explain the methodology in the paper. The following figure shows the survival curves from the previous figure as well as projections shown in gray
These results suggest that women born in the 1980s and 1990s are not just getting married later; they are on pace to stay unmarried at rates substantially higher than previous cohorts. In particular, women born in the 1980s seem to have leveled off; very few of them have been married between ages 30 and 34. For women born in the 1990s, it is too early to tell whether they have started to level off.
The following figure summarizes these results by taking vertical slices through the survival curves at ages 23, 33 and 43.
In this figure the x-axis is birth cohort and the y-axis is the fraction who have never married.
1) The top line shows that the fraction of women never married by age 23 has increased from 25% for women born in the 40s to 81% for women born in the 90s.
2) The fraction of women unmarried at age 33 has increased from 9% for women born in the 40s to 38% for women born in the 80s, and is projected to be 47% for women born in the 90s.
3) The fraction of women unmarried at age 43 has increased from 8% for women born in the 40s to 17% for women born in the 70s, and is projected to be 36% for women born in the 1990s.
These projections are based on simple assumptions, so we should not treat them as precise predictions, but they are not as naive as a simple straight-line extrapolations of past trends.
Men The results for men are similar but less extreme. Here are the estimated survival curves based on a sample of 24652 men in the U.S. The gray areas show 90% confidence intervals for the estimates due to sampling error.
1) At age 23, the fraction of men who have never married has increased from 66% for men born in the 50s to 88% for men born in the 90s.
2) At age 33, the fraction of unmarried men has increased from 27% to 44%, and is projected to go to 50%.
3) At age 43, the fraction of unmarried men is almost unchanged for men born in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, but is projected to increase to 30% for men born in the 1990s.
Methodology The NSFG is intended to be representative of the adult U.S. population, but it uses stratified sampling to systematically oversample certain subpopulations, including teenagers and racial minorities. My analysis takes this design into account (by weighted resampling) to generate results that are representative of the population.
The survival curves are computed by Kaplan-Meier estimation, with confidence intervals computed by resampling. Missing values are filled by random choice from valid values, so the confidence intervals represent variability due to missing values as well as sampling.
To generate projections, we might consider two factors:
1) If people in the last two cohorts are postponing marriage, we might expect their marriage rates to increase or decrease more slowly.
2) If we extrapolate the trends, we might expect marriage rates to continue to fall or fall faster.
I used an alternative between these extremes: I assume that the hazard function from the previous generation will apply to the next. This takes into account the possibility of delayed marriage (since there are more unmarried people "at risk" in the projections), but it also assumes a degree of regression to past norms. In that sense, the projections are probably conservative; that is, they probably underestimate how different the last two cohorts will be from their predecessors.
I googled it. You know what it means. And still, nothing in the f-ing manual says you should get married. It even counsels against it.
“Look, we’re not all man-hating *itches!”
The good ones are generally spoken for pretty quickly, and finding the few that aren’t is an experience comparable to trying to dig through a bowl of turds looking for a tootsie roll.
It's no fun for the kids who are brought willy-nilly into the dysfunctional non-families that settle for just "reproducing".
All the same, total fertility rates are trending down as well, but to see how those particular cohorts pan out will take another couple of decades.
By which time, of course, it's too late to reverse course.
I know it means Read The Field Manual, just like it meant 30 years ago at the Tech Schools in Fort Gordon.
YMMV!
What’s the difference between forgiveness of sin in the body of Christ, His bride which is the Church — and permission to sin manufactured by those operating in the spirit of anti-Christ who covet and seek to defile the bride of Christ?
Who, in their right mind, wants to marry today’s woman?
Enjoy yourself. Red pill.
“The sin against the Holy Spirit is the conscious, persistent, stubborn, unyielding refusal of someone who was at one time a believer to acknowledge his or her sin, be sorry for it, and desire God’s forgiveness in Christ.”
https://www.lcms.org/faqs/doctrine
Red Pill that.
Who, in their right mind, wants to marry today's woman?
Fools rush in where wise men never go,
But wise men never fall in love,
So how are they to know?
When we met, I felt my life begin,
So open up your heart and let
This fool rush in.
(A song from an age increasingly far removed from our own, a time in which some folks still realized that there were things more important than ME.)
Judge not.
I tried to get married once.
She said no and then broke up with me.
A year later I caught her getting felt up by some other woman.
I don’t feel quite so bad now. Learned my lesson about being patient to make sure that there aren’t bombshells like that.
Still lonely, though.
>>Judge not. Luke 17:3-4 "If your brother sins, rebuke him, and if he repents, forgive him.
NIV
What’s the difference between forgiveness of sin in the body of Christ, His bride which is the Church — and permission to sin manufactured by those operating in the spirit of anti-Christ who covet and seek to defile the bride of Christ?
Marry at age 30-plus, and your odds of finding someone who values marriage and wants children go way down. Those who want those things are already married. Marry at age 18, and you have to get lucky to notice the right reasons with hormones raging. In between, perhaps from age 19-29, is the best time to look.
***
Too late for me, then!
Then again, I doubt that it would have gone well for me.
Thanks for the post.
My sons read a web page called MGTOW.
More women need to read it. It is good to understand both sides and, like most topics, the MSM only gives us one side.
“Paul didn’t define Natural Law.”
Most things in nature hump anything they can corner, as often as possible, so I don’t think that will be a winning argument for you either.
Marriage, between one man and one woman, has always been—and all always will be—the best chance for children to attain a happy, healthy life.
Teaching about Divorce
Matt 19:1-12The sad fact of the matter of marriage [and divorce] in the United States right now is that it is fraught with risk -- even in the case of infidelity on the wife's part the husband is likely to get "eaten alive" in the courts, add that to men being forced to pay child support for children that are provably not theirs and that a woman can wake up one morning and decide she doesn't like her husband any more and file for divorce (thanks no-fault divorce! [/sarc]) and you get something that is terrible to men, and even more terrible to men who do try to do righteously.
When Jesus had finished saying these things, he left Galilee and went to the region of Judea beyond the Jordan. Large crowds followed him, and he cured them there.Some Pharisees came to him, and to test him they asked, “Is it lawful for a man to divorce his wife for any cause?” He answered, “Have you not read that the one who made them at the beginning ‘made them male and female,’ and said, ‘For this reason a man shall leave his father and mother and be joined to his wife, and the two shall become one flesh’? So they are no longer two, but one flesh. Therefore what God has joined together, let no one separate.” They said to him, “Why then did Moses command us to give a certificate of dismissal and to divorce her?” He said to them, “It was because you were so hard-hearted that Moses allowed you to divorce your wives, but from the beginning it was not so. And I say to you, whoever divorces his wife, except for unchastity, and marries another commits adultery.”
His disciples said to him, “If such is the case of a man with his wife, it is better not to marry.” But he said to them, “Not everyone can accept this teaching, but only those to whom it is given. For there are eunuchs who have been so from birth, and there are eunuchs who have been made eunuchs by others, and there are eunuchs who have made themselves eunuchs for the sake of the kingdom of heaven. Let anyone accept this who can.”
RTFM? Here's some other passages you're ignoring:
Micha 6:8Seriously, marriage today is really quite a risky venture on the man's part due to just the legal conditions, add in the social conditions (our society's embrace of feminism) and they pretty much get hit with everything being their fault, and a constant pressure that the woman has little-to-no responsibility/accountability.
He has declared unto thee, O man, what is good and what the LORD requires of thee: only to do right judgment, and to love mercy, and to humble thyself to walk with thy God.Issiah 5:20, 23-24
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Which justify the wicked for reward, and take away the righteousness of the righteous from him!
Therefore as the fire devoureth the stubble, and the flame consumeth the chaff, so their root shall be as rottenness, and their blossom shall go up as dust: because they have cast away the law of the Lord of hosts, and despised the word of the Holy One of Israel.Lev 19:15
You shall do no injustice in court. You shall not be partial to the poor or defer to the great, but in righteousness shall you judge your neighbor.2 Chronicles 19:6-7
Consider carefully what you do, because you are not judging for man but for the Lord, who is with you whenever you give a verdict. Now let the fear of the Lord be upon you. Judge carefully, for with the Lord our God there is no injustice or partiality or bribery.Proverbs 22:3
A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.
Good. Let them fall somewhere else.
Don't blame Millennials. They didn't ask for lousy parents.
[Abstinence or Marriage.
That’s the choice.]
That’s Vatican law. Not Biblical law.
Bingo
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