[paulk]

Well worth the read —

The best part is the Nassim Nicholas Taleb quote..

https://twitter.com/nntaleb

https://twitter.com/hashtag/SkinInTheGame?src=hash

— wonder off topic -—
Anyone that ‘knows’ when it is going to pop is full of it ...

or better said:

Those that have knowledge don’t predict.
Those that predict, don’t have knowledge.
Lao tzu

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.jp/2017/04/housings-echo-bubble-now-exceeds-2006.html

Predicting complex stuff doesn’t work.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/856935211682213888/photo/1

Of course this applies to AGW as well.

I was thinking the other day about ‘cold reading’ - the psychic con artist trick. The trick is to predict general things that people will apply affirmation bias to confirm — “you have had a change in your in your life” etc.

I think the reason ‘global warming’ changed to ‘climate change’ is just a cold reading trick.

No different than predicting the stock market - people will see patterns in noise.

The cure is to ask the warming proponent how much of the recent warming (about .5deg-C per century) is due to CO2 vs natural variations. Some might realize that they are ‘natural variation deniers’.

[AndyJackson]

One of the problems is that one side of this declared that they are the source of all expertise - you know, the Harvard and Georgetown policy experts in arms control and nonproliferation studies who have handed us a NK nuclear problem on the verge of being too late to do anything about it. Now those same folks declare that there are no good options and that the situation is very complicated.

Complicated it is not. It is simple. The solution requires planning, skill and guts - and a willingness to accept the risk that some tragic result will happen, but better now than in the future when the existence of all humanity is on the line.

[Vendome]

Did the OP get the Zot?