President Trump vs. House Freedom Caucus: Politics and Game Theory (vanity)

3-30-2017 | Self

[Cboldt]

-- Instead, we have factions with different goals and different tactics, and I believe that this is the way that Trump is pursuing his stated goals. --

Pretty much everybody uses game theory, with varying skill of course, and "luck" and timing are a big part too.

It's unwise to think that Trump always plays the game with that "tough but fair" pattern. "Tough but fair" is not always the best strategy, and risk taking (deviating from the usual pattern) can have great benefit.

And what makes you so sure his stated goals are his actual goals? Voters are part of this game too.

It's too early to tell whre Trump is headed with all this, but obviously, his utterances are flippant, and he is not afraid of trash talking his allies.

[Robwin]

For what it's worth, from the GOP platform, section entitled "Great American Families, Education, Healthcare, and Criminal Justice", subsection "•Restoring Patient Control and Preserving Quality in Healthcare":

Any honest agenda for improving healthcare must start with repeal of the dishonestly named Affordable Care Act of 2010: Obamacare.

But what matter? The platform is not like a statement of principles or something.

[Luircin]

I’ll respond to this in segments.

________________________________

It’s unwise to think that Trump always plays the game with that “tough but fair” pattern. “Tough but fair” is not always the best strategy, and risk taking (deviating from the usual pattern) can have great benefit.

***

*Shrug* In this case, I’m going way back to the basics. TBF tends to be a dominant strategy, and Trump’s actions have fallen largely into that mold. I could be wrong, but I can only report on what I’ve seen and how it looks.

***

And what makes you so sure his stated goals are his actual goals? Voters are part of this game too.

It’s too early to tell whre Trump is headed with all this, but obviously, his utterances are flippant, and he is not afraid of trash talking his allies.

***

I don’t know if Trump is telling the truth; no one is a mind reader. But his purely executive actions have been, in my opinion, sheer awesome. In executive actions in which Trump has been able to act completely on his own initiative, he has been the most conservative President in the last 30 or so years.

Also, the HFC is not Trump’s ally. They are a faction on their own. They may have convergent goals with Trump and may want to work with him, but they are their own group working towards their own goals, some of which may not be Trump’s goals. And even if they do share the same goals, they still come into conflict on the best way to achieve those goals.

Throw voters into the mix and it suddenly becomes a lot more complicated than I could try to analyze in a 1500-word vanity.

My argument is that Trump and his administration is a separate faction from the HFC, and Trump’s tactics when dealing with them are consistent with the TBF strategy in game theory, at least on a very basic level. We may not LIKE it, but I would argue that it IS consistent.

[Blue Highway]

I’ve always questioned why Trump was keeping Prince Reibus and Lyin Paul Ryan, but I remember people saying it was Trump doing Ju Jitsu or 5D chess saying he was setting themselves up to fail or cross him and then they’d be FIRED bigly! Well so far that hasn’t happened and at least at this point Ryan has played his cards and needs to go, but for Trump to stand with him loyaly either he is a chess master or he is being played like a fiddle by the RINOs like Ryan.

[Luircin]

But what matter? The platform is not like a statement of principles or something.

***

I don’t think we quite understand each other.

My argument is that Trump’s goal—repealing Obamacare—was being played out in the process. Also, the reason that he acted as he did could be explained by game theory, specifically by tough but fair.

We only saw a single iteration of the ‘game’ that was being played, and we are in the middle of round 2 right now. It will take dozens if not hundreds of iterations before we reach the final product.

We may not like it, but it IS consistent with TBF.

Trump has been very, very good on nearly every other point, especially when he doesn’t have to deal with Congress. I find it hard to believe that he would so easily break a promise. But when you add Congress to the mix, Trump himself cannot move alone, and neither can the HFC. They HAVE to play the game, and it is a game that cannot be won in a single round.

[Cboldt]

I'll read your post more carefully in a moment, but Trump is taking a new (and better) tack in recent tweets. He is personalizing it rather than lumping every person in a small faction in the same boat.

Great op-ed from @RepKenBuck. Looks like some in the Freedom Caucus are helping me end #Obamacare.
@realDonaldTrump - 5:17 PM - 30 Mar 2017

If @RepMarkMeadows, @Jim_Jordan and @Raul_Labrador would get on board we would have both great healthcare and massive tax cuts & reform.
@realDonaldTrump - 5:20 PM - 30 Mar 2017

Where are @RepMarkMeadows, @Jim_Jordan and @Raul_Labrador? #RepealANDReplace #Obamacare
@realDonaldTrump - 5:21 PM - 30 Mar 2017

I say "better" because by naming allies, Trump is more clearly aligning himself, staking a position, etc. Like it or not, at least he is clear in position.

There is another angle, and that is that Trump learned early on in his venture to politics, he will lose and gain support. Some people will "drop him." His standing only matters on election day. He can afford to lose old supporters. Most voters are fickle, and most can be bought.

[IDontLikeToPayTaxes]

Trump is not a conservative.

This is all anyone needs to know in understanding why Trump continually targets conservatives as the enemy.

Good. They should be targeted.

They've proven themselves to be the enemies of America and Western Civilization itself. But so are the "moderates" but that's another discussion.

Conservatives cave and placate the Left at every opportunity.

They betray America every single time.

They stab you in the back every single time.

They haven't won a major fight with the Left in over 50 years.

Conservatives have been unmasked for the traitors and scoundrels that they are.

Just look to the recent legislation in North Carolina to make nice with the transvestites for the sake of a basketball game.

[Luircin]

My argument in response to that is that Ryan and his ilk, despite the fact that we despise them, are still playing Nice in the current game. They may be foot-dragging or arguing, but they are still compromising, and in that compromise, Trump still gets some of his agenda passed. More than if he was blatantly confrontational with them.

We know—and I’m pretty sure Trump knows—that they’re lying weasels, but cooperating with them for now IS consistent with Tough but Fair.

Same with the Freedom Caucus. They were playing Nasty (and again, I’m not making MORAL judgments on them, but rather I’m saying that their tactics fell right into what is typically defined as Nasty according to game theory), and Trump’s response according to TBF is to be Nasty and uncooperative back until they change.

Remember, it’s not a matter of making Ryan and the RINOs get what they deserve; it’s a matter of MAGA. And according to game theory, you usually get the best score and the largest profits if you play some variant on TBF.

My argument is that this is exactly what Trump is doing right now.

[Cboldt]

-- My argument is that Trump and his administration is a separate faction from the HFC, and Trump's tactics when dealing with them are consistent with the TBF strategy in game theory, at least on a very basic level. We may not LIKE it, but I would argue that it IS consistent. --

I don't disagree with any of that in principle. My point was that your assumptions (e.g, that HFC was dealing in bad faith) aren't necessarily true, and that Trump can and probably does deviate from the pattern that consistently wins most games (e.g., treat an ally in bad faith once in awhile, or as an opening gambit).

I'm way past thinking any politician, Trump included, deserves a presumption of good faith. He is as much of a snake as any of them. Less of a snake than Hillary for sure, but he's still presumed to be a snake. Good guys do not get to that level, ever.

[Responsibility2nd]

You speak for a lot of people. Not me, of course but lots of Freepers also see conservatives as the enemy.

What a strange place this is.

6 months ago if you told people that conservatives are bad; the GOP-e is good. And that we should be happy with ObamaCare lite - You’d have been zotted in a heartbeat.

Now? Now thinking like yours is prevalent.

I say again - What a strange place this is.

[Luircin]

I would argue that Trump is very conservative; all you need to do is look at his executive actions without Congress to see that.

My argument is that in order to achieve his goals, this is the tactic that he is using.

My argument is also that the HFC may or may not have the same goals as Trump, but that their tactics to achieve those goals are fundamentally different than Trump’s tactics.

And by looking at game theory and the strategy known as Tough but Fair, we can understand why Trump is going after the HFC in this manner while still being conservative.

Do you care to engage, or are you going to stick to your I-hate-Trump meme?

[Luircin]

I saw those tweets just as you posted that!

I think that it could be used as evidence to prove both our points on this thread; I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

[IDontLikeToPayTaxes]

6 months ago if you told people that conservatives are bad; the GOP-e is good. And that we should be happy with ObamaCare lite - You’d have been zotted in a heartbeat.

I never said the GOPe is good. I never said we should settle for Obamacare Lite.

I'm saying that Conservatives will never win against the Left. They'll retreat ever time.

A Conservative position today is a Liberal position from 20 years ago.

There is more to right wing politics than Conservatives.

[txhurl]

All it will take is a couple instances of landing in hot water and conservatives suddenly, mysteriously not picking up the phone to jolt him back to who’s really paying the rent and spilling the blood for him.

That’s why we non-rich non-NYers have to erupt early and often when alarmed, because our world is really quite alien to him, and he may assume we natives are happy if we’re not chunking any spears.

[Responsibility2nd]

Do you care to engage, or are you going to stick to your I-hate-Trump meme?

__________________________________________

It looks like you’ve made up your mind about me being engaged. But if you care to see the replies and the input I’ve put into your thread here - you’ll I have considered your POV. As well as others. And have put in more than my two cents worth as well.

Thank you.

[Luircin]

That’s just the thing, I didn’t see you engage with my points at all.

Maybe I’m just being stupid, but I don’t see any counter-arguments to my post; all I see is your claims about disliking Trump.

So I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em. Feel free to correct me.

[Cboldt]

Agreed, and "not picking up the phone" will be evidenced by indifference to his rallies and tweets.

I do agree though, his executive actions have been pretty darn good. Others have said, and I tend to agree with this, Trump's presidency is nothing but a temporary stall to the advancement of globalism. The country is lost, all we are getting out of the founder's vision is a bit more time. Universal suffrage is guaranteed loss of the republic.

[Responsibility2nd]

There is more to right wing politics than Conservatives.

____________________________________________

Well said. And Paul Ryan, Lyndsey Graham and John McCain thank you for your support.

[Defiant]

I didn’t see what the HFC did that put them in the nasty category. None of them slammed Trump, just Ryan’s bill.

[be-baw]

I’m compelled to comment on your post before I read any other replies.

Outstanding article. One of the best analyses I’ve seen of political/human behavior ever! Thanks for posting it!