Nope.
If the last big one was before the Civil War, more than 160 years ago, how could there possibly be a 12% chance in the next four years? We should have had a half dozen of them since. While it could happen, the odds are substantially less than 12%.
Plus, if it does happen, nobody will be able to tell me “I told you so!” ;)
Plausibly the events aren’t random.