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To: Rusty0604

You raise a very interesting question, since there is a possibility that the electoral vote could be Cankles 269 - The Donald 269, or, possibly, Cankles 269 Trump 263 McMuffin 6 (I actually saw a guy holding up a sign for Evan along route 294 in Prince William County, VA yesterday).

The 12th amendment provides that if the election goes to the House, the vote is by state delegation, not by a roll call of individual House members. Since the counting of the electoral vote takes place on January 7, 2016 after the new House is seated, here is a look at how the delegations might shake out.

Solid Republican (meaning that a clear majority of the state’s delegation are solid GOP in the most recent Cook Political Report)—23 states:

Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
Tennessee
Texas
West Virginia
Wyoming

Toss-Ups: 11 states

Alaska (1 congressman, Don Young, arguably the most corrupt GOP House member, 22 term veteran, rated lean R by Cook, Anchorage Daily News poll published poll of 10/12/16 showed Young 45, Dem 30, Independent 9, Libertarian 8).

Arizona: 9 member delegation, 4 GOP locks, 3 DEM locks, GOP Martha McSally rated “likely GOP”, 1st district open seat rated leans DEM.

Colorado: 7 member delegation, 3 DEM locks, 2 GOP locks, GOP Scott Tipton rated “likely”, GOP Mike Coffman rated “Tossup”

Florida: 27 member delegation, 12 GOP locks, 8 DEM locks, 1 likely GOP (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen), 1 lean GOP (open district 2 seat in Tallahassee/Panhandle area), 2 GOP incumbent toss-ups (John Mica and Carlos Curbelo) 1 DEM toss-up (District 18, Patrick Murphy’s seat, GOP candidate is Brian Mast, Middle East military hero who lost both legs over there, endorsed by Mark Levin), 1 lean DEM (GOP incumbent David Jolly expected to lose to chameleon Charlie Crist), and 1 likely DEM (this was the Alan Grayson seat).

Iowa: 1 GOP lock, 1 DEM lock, 1 GOP likely (David Young from southwest Iowa CD 3); 1 GOP tossup (Rod Blum from northeast Iowa CD 1; this guy was probably the most likely member to be defeated at the start of this Congress—that he is in a tossup shows he’s doing solid work).

Maine: 2 member delegation; 1 DEM lock; GOP incumbent Bruce Poliquin is in a dead heat with former ‘Rat legislative leader Emily Cain for the northern/eastern Maine district; Cook rates this a tossup.

Michigan: 14 member delegation, 6 GOP locks, 5 DEM locks, 1 GOP likely (Rep. Mike Bishop) 2 GOP lean (the UP and northern lower peninsula district 1; and Rep. Tim Walberg in rural southeast Michigan district 7).

Montana: 1 member delegation: GOP incumbent Ryan Zinke; race is rated likely GOP; Zinke’s polling shows him ahead 49-38; his ‘Rat challenger claims her polls show her losing 42-45.

Nevada: 4 member delegation — 1 GOP lock; 1 DEM lock; GOP incumbent Cresent Hardy’s seat is rated leans DEM; Joe Heck’s district is rated tossup.

Virginia: 11 member delegation: 5 GOP locks; 3 DEM locks; the south central VA district 5 given up by Robert Hurt is rated likely GOP (state Sen. Tom Garrett is our candidate); the 10th district long held by Frank Wolf and since 2015 by RINO Barbara Comstock is rated tossup, although Comstock should win (her opponent is the ex-wife of crooked former Alexandria congressman Jim Moran, and she’s a crooked real estate developer, LuAnn “LuHaul” Bennett); and one likely DEM, which will be Richmond area African-American state senator Don McEachin (the VA senate’s gain will be the House’s loss with this moronic loudmouth getting promoted to the federal House).

Wisconsin: 8 member delegation, 4 GOP locks (counting Paul Rino), 3 DEM locks, 1 lean GOP (district 8 held by retiring GOP Reid Ribble).

Democrat Delegations: 15 states

California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington state

Leans Democrat: 1

New Hampshire (1 DEM lock; GOP incument Frank Guinta seat rated leans DEM in rematch with Carol Shea-Porter, a/k/a Carol Che-Porter).

Verdict—the GOP is certain to control 23 delegations and is likely to control at least four others (Alaska, Florida, Michigan, Montana). Virginia ought to be at least 6-5 in favor of the GOP, and Wisconsin ought to be 5-3 GOP.

Therefore, we should not fear this election being thrown to the House.

However, if the ‘Rats win the senate and the GOP only gets to 25 delegations, say hello to President Tim Kaine (that is the outcome prescribed by the 12th Amendment if the House can’t pick a winner by noon on January 20, 2017).


77 posted on 10/26/2016 4:59:34 PM PDT by nd76
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To: nd76

Thanks for that info.


78 posted on 10/26/2016 5:06:11 PM PDT by Rusty0604
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