Iraqi forces poised to launch operation to retake Mosul

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) -- Iraqi forces appear poised to launch their most complex anti-IS operation to date: retaking the country's second-largest city of Mosul.

While the country's military has won a string of territorial victories that have pushed the Islamic State group out of more than half the territory the group once held, some Iraqi officials worry that the Mosul fight has been rushed and if the city is retaken without a plan to broker a peace, it could lead to more violence.

Mosul fell to the Islamic State group in June of 2014, when the extremist group blitzed across northern and western Iraq, overrunning nearly a third of the country and plunging Iraq into its most critical political and security crisis since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

The most recent string of territorial victories for Iraqi ground forces have been in the country's west. Iraqi forces retook the city of Ramadi in late 2015, followed by a number of towns and villages along the Euphrates River valley and then Fallujah in June. This allowed Iraqi forces to weaken the group by cutting supply lines used to ferry fighters and supplies between territory held in Syria and Iraq.

Iraqi forces began moving into Nineveh province to surround Mosul in July, when ground troops led by the country's elite special forces retook Qayara air base south of the city. Thousands of Iraqi troops are now massing there ahead of the planned operation. Iraqi troops are also being deployed east of Mosul in the Khazer area, along with Kurdish Peshmerga forces, and to the north of the city near the Mosul Dam and Bashiqa areas.

While Iraqi forces have won a number of territorial victories against IS over the past year, the Mosul fight is expected to be the most complex yet for the country's military. Mosul is Iraq's second-largest city and still home to more than a million civilians. Both in terms of geography and population, it's a much larger task than Iraq's military has ever undertaken previously in the fight against IS.

Iraq's military has been under enormous pressure to launch the operation to retake Mosul before the end of this year as Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has repeatedly promised Mosul would be retaken in 2016. Some Iraqi officials are concerned that the military operation is being rushed before the country's politicians have agreed on how the province will be governed after the Islamic State group is pushed out.

Iraq remains deeply divided, and the grievances between the country's Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish populations that allowed IS to rise to power in the first place have not been resolved. Some Iraqi officials have cautioned that even after Mosul is retaken from IS, violence will erupt again in the form of revenge killings or clashes between groups once allied against a common enemy.

When the Iraqis retake a city here lately, they hold it on average for a week, maybe two. Hopefully, they have better leadership, weaponry and game plan than before. More than a few times I’ve heard of Iraqi fighters immediately surrendering to ISIS or some other group. One factor may be that Shia don’t want to fight other Shia, and Sunni don’t want to fight other Sunni.

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