Well, no. It is all in where you start. Ravi compiled ongoing lists of five blue counties early in the year. At that time, the Rs were crushing it, outperforming in every single county. In early ballot requests, Rs up 48,000. Story is “well, that’s less than what they were up in 2012.” Maybe, but we have far more voters turning out than in 2012 (I’m guessing at least 3.1m absentees) and Speedy in Texas projects Rs will end up about +128,000 in absentees.
Rs are outperforming Ds based on 2012 in Hillsborough Co. Rs are ahead by about 4% in actual votes.
Thanks for your perspective and reply. I figured you’d have insight:)