I follow Joe Bastardi on Twitter. I have a lot of respect for Joe's forecasts.
Joe has this storm sideswiping FL and then going out to sea after Cape Hatteras. Storm will gradually weaken as it moves north. Cooler waters - it's October.
Water’s still pretty warm up to the southern tip of Hatteras Island. North of there, it drops off quickly. Of course, it does that in summer, too. You can have 80 degree water at south Hatteras and 67 at Duck.