Trump wins this election due to a larger turnout of voters that have not voted in a long time, or never voted.
This is the vote that I believe we are not seeing in any polls.
Just an example of a normal turnout...
36 % democrat
30 % independent
34 % republican
I believe looking at the primaries and the Florida early voting we will see this... And I am generous with the democrats giving them a +2 which I do not think they will get.
31 % democrat
27 % independent
29 % republican
10 % never voted, or very long time virtually all Trump
This is a 10% swing to Trump and a big win for him.
In Florida, Republican primary turnout went from 1.7M to 2.4M, 2008 to 2016. It’s a much bigger wave than people estimate.