Posted on 08/17/2016 8:57:57 AM PDT by Signalman
Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University today told Lou Dobbs Donald Trump has an 87% chance of winning the November presidential election.
Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University.
His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.
This 2016 forecast rests on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.
Norproth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.
“What I’ve noticed in my travels over the last week, (driving through NYS, into NH and then on to Maine) is that there are precious few Hillary signs. Many more for Sanders.
Sanders appears to have much more support than Hillary.
I saw a number of Trump signs, too.
I won’t post signs in my yard. My right to vote is a privilege and my right to a secret ballot is also one.
Plus, I am not interested in having my property vandalized by the loving *tolerant* dems. “
FYI, it is interesting that in all of the polls over the last several weeks (since Trump allegedly “self-destructed”), Hillary has not cracked 50%. She is, effectively, the incumbent - since she is not only of the same party, but was part of Obama’s administration and has gone to some lengths to avoid criticizing him - and when an incumbent cannot crack 50% in the polls, that is BIG trouble (for them, that is).
I hear ya, but my gut tells me there is an undercurrent of Trump support the polls do not show. But then it has been wrong before.
I just get hung up on how hard the PTBs, on both sides, are fighting him. That smells like Victory, somehow. I mean LA Times poll with Cankles up 1%? That is just weird.
The media is doing it best to hide the truth with untruthful polls. When Trump starts rolling and his numbers keep rising the media will not be able to stop him with their lies.
It appears that Wikipedia was just using gallup's polls as a source, which of course isn't a good way of evaluating overall polling. Don't know exactly what this chart's sources are, but it indicates it is an average of polls, which is probably more accurate than just picking one poll.
Yes, it appears that gallup was really bad at polling in 1980.
I posted a chart above this based on an average of all major polling in 1980, which shows that Gallup was an outlier.
THe fact that Gallup showed an 8-point jump for Reagan in the last poll before the election shows how badly Gallup was doing.
It doesn’t depress me like it did in 2012. Because it’s not just about the polls now. It’s about the entire candidacy. Like there is this real person, Donald Trump, who is running for PResident.
But then there is this imaginary candidate “Donald Trump” that a lot of people here claim is running for President, that has a whole different set of beliefs, character, and ability.
It’s like we finally found the perfect candidate, the one we make up in our head and pretend is running.
Is Mass Psychosis a thing? Apparently so.
Given that though, I’m not sure if I am supposed to care whether Trump wins or loses. I mean, just on principle, I’d rather a Turnip win than Hillary, and Trump has some of the same letters as Turnip.
I mean, I have no idea what Trump stands for, or what he’ll do, so I guess there is a theoretical possibility that he will do the right thing once in a while.
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