People in PA don’t know that Mrs. Bill is anti-gun.
All they know is the D means Democrat.
Actual PA person here.
Not sure how it will all work out. Here is the positives going in our direction, based on observations in the suburbs North and Northwest of Philly:
If Hillary is the candidate (most likely):
1) In 2008 and 2012 Obama was the anti-war candidate, now Trump is.
2) People here like their guns, and while prior to 2012 the real intentions of Obama were not obvious to Billy-Joe-Jim-Bob after Sandy Hook almost no gun owner is not aware that we are in the sights of the anti-gunners. Not so powerful in my area, but big effect on normally democratically leaning blue collar.
3) While liberals loved to signal how virtuous they were when Obama was running, but after 8 years it has sort of faded. It does not seem fresh or bold anymore, nor does that sense of liberal wonder transfer to Hillary. She is past her sell-by date.
4) Obama’s plan to move the slums to nice neighborhoods is equally offensive to liberals and conservatives. Liberals are all for integration as long as involves someone else bearing the cost, certainly not their kids getting beat up by diversity or their daughters dating it. They will not say it, but they will be very unlikely to vote for the party actively planning to put section 8 housing next to their 500,000 dollar heavily mortgaged house.
5) Many of the industries that have been shipped overseas came out of PA, especially in the suburbs and in the upstate region that did provide a lot of support for Obama in 2008/2012 (Scranton area). Now the republicans have put up a candidate who talks about defending blue color jobs like a pre 1996 democrat. Wow.....
6) PA still has coal fields. Hillary anti-coal.
7) Liberal folks love bisexual men who dress like female ponies in leather gear.......until they are headed into the public bathrooms with their girls. So the entire transgendered bathroom thing is forcing nice good meaning liberal folks to face the consequences of their open-mindedness, which in the prior two elections they could avoid. They may be liberal but they do not want their daughters choked by a mental patient dressed up like a gay pony (something similar happened in a restaurant recently).
8) The liberal diversity love-fest has shown signs of weakening and the nice well meaning liberal folks cannot help but notice that with increased diversity they or more likely, their children may some be on the scapegoat menu if economic conditions continue to weaken. We have a struggling economy here, you can see it in a number of areas.
9) Demographics: PA has gotten more white since 2010 (~83% now vs. 81.9% in 2010), more black (11.6 % vs. 10.8% in 2010) but less Latin. (groups that lost out to supply above gains). Seems to be related to weak employment which lead to less illegals. Favors Trump.
10) Hillarie’s young problem: young millennia’s seem to love Bernie, the “fellow traveler”. They do not love Hillary, for reasons too lengthy to relate. Expect low turnout of these folks, especially if the Dem convention is divisive.
11) Despite the supposed female love of Hillary, I have only seen 3 groups that likes here: Unmarried mid 40s bitter white women, single black women and lesbians. Older single women seem scared and like Trump (the protector). Young liberal chicks like Sanders (free stuff and he will pay off their 60,000 dollar school debt). In fact the local anecdotal evidence is that Hillary does not play well at all with most women folk on a visceral gut level, (she reminds them of an overbearing female boss), which is how they generally vote (except the 3 populations described).
12) Trump appeals to working black men and older black married couples, of which there are populations here. Not saying he will get close to a plurality, but he might draw 9 to 12 % of the total black vote, not the sub 5% the republicans got here in 2008/2012
Here are the negatives:
1) registrations: 49.5% Democratic, 37 % Republican, rest independents. Trump needs to pull a significant number of democratic blue collar voters (~15%) or he losses. He needs that even if the in dependents for him 5-3 and the republicans have a better turnout by 15 % (as indicated by primary)
Why?
2) Philly was caught stuffing ballots in the last presidential election and no one went to jail, as in some dem city districts put in 99% of registered vote totals, all for Obama
3) Lots of dead and moved folks on the rolls. stuffing opportunities.
4) Illegals allowed to motor voter register with no proof of citizenship. They will be voting....
Trump does stand a real chance of winning, but it is by no means a slam dunk.
Yes they do!