A very astute analysis. All the “Trump can’t win!” hysteria based on current polling completely ignores the fact that the choice is Trump winning on the 1st ballot or Cruz winning on a 2nd or later ballot. How does Cruz, limping out of a contested convention, then win over the voters of the four purple states Romney and McCain both lost, and which Cruz will absolutely have to win to beat Hillary? Cruz came in a distant third in OH, FL, NV and VA. Even under the best of conditions it would be an uphill climb for Cruz to win them. But Cruz will not have the best of conditions. He will be the winner of a contested convention, something that current polling isn’t taking into consideration. After the damage inflicted by the contested convention process, it will only take a few percent of disgruntled Trump voters in those four states to stay home and Cruz has no path to 270.
“A very astute analysis.”
Thank you, I’ve been looking at RCP and 270towin for a long time.
” How does Cruz, limping out of a contested convention, then win over the voters of the four purple states Romney and McCain both lost, and which Cruz will absolutely have to win to beat Hillary?”
He can’t. He has little or no appeal to northern working class.
“Cruz came in a distant third in OH, FL, NV and VA.”
Cruz can’t win FL. So if he’s the nominee, it will be over real quick, Hillary will be announced president-elect at about 6pm election night.
“Even under the best of conditions it would be an uphill climb for Cruz to win them. But Cruz will not have the best of conditions. He will be the winner of a contested convention, something that current polling isn’t taking into consideration. After the damage inflicted by the contested convention process, it will only take a few percent of disgruntled Trump voters in those four states to stay home and Cruz has no path to 270.”
Yup, as soon as Cruz is nominated, Hillary has automatically won 254 electoral votes, she only needs to campaign in and win one more state: NC. Easy-peezy for her.