You are absolutely right. Cruz and Trump will command the rules committee by their delegates. And I would say Cruz would have an advantage, as Trump didn’t do the due diligence required to get his delegates in many of these states.
Further, read this panicked plea by Virginia Republican National Committeeman, Morton Blackwell written last January to the RNC. http://www.redstate.com/diary/Morton_C_Blackwell/2016/01/11/urgent-amendments-national-rules-republican-party/
of particular import is this quote from his letter:
“With the same justification deliberately used in the presidential nomination roll call in 2012, that major candidate, the Convention Chairman, and the Convention Secretary could all agree that, because of Rule 40, no votes could be counted for anyone who did not meet Rule 40(b)’s requirements for having his or her name formally placed in nomination.
They would maintain that Rule 16(a)(2) itself contains wording by which any of the other existing rules – including Rule 40(b) and Rule 40(d) – trump Rule 16(a)(2).
Put another way, the powers that be could maintain that no delegate votes could be counted unless they were cast for a candidate who had been formally nominated under Rule 40(b). That intention was not avowed by those who wrote and hastily passed Rule 40(b), but events showed that they understood its effect and intended that no delegate votes would be counted in Tampa for anyone other than Mitt Romney.”
It appears to me that the RNC is now hoisted on its own petard.
Well, I see the rules change as not happening. This is a major possibility being avoided at Faux news.
At the risk of redundancy, speculate for a moment that no change of Rule 40 or 16 is approved by the delegates on the floor. ( Ryan will try a voice vote here but watch what happens) Note that the rules committee has 2 from each state. That is new from 2012. But even if they propose a rule change, it has to go to the floor. Let’s say that Cruz only has 4 states majority . Trump team will allow the number required to go from 8 top 4 in order to have the votes to block out everyone else ,Like all the Rinos that the RNC want to airdrop in with zero state majorities. This gives them total super majority on the floor. The floor must approve any change. Now , follow me here. The two are placed in nomination. Let’s assume 200 delegates are legally bound to vote for someone not in nomination. They are precluded by rule 16 from voting!! This drops the nomination “majority” to 1137 votes not 1237!! May the better man win. And I dont see that modified on subsequent ballots as to eligible candidates . You can only vote for a person in nomination. If delegates are released from ineligible candidates on the second ballot, that is where the money will fly. But there won’t be anyone in nomination but Trump or Cruz. Rules are Rules!!