OK, you are correct. More specifically, The establishment support that Cruz is currently getting will just poof, disappear once the establishment does not need him anymore. Carl Rove, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, Reince Priebus, Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell and the rest have all said repeatedly that Cruz will not get the nomination at the convention. Some have changed their tune in the last week or two, but this is complete BS. Cruz is not establishment.
Romney campaigned with Kasich in Ohio and then a couple days later he was campaigning with Cruz in Utah. In Tennessee the GOP not only wouldn’t allow Trump and Cruz supporters to be delegates, they wouldn’t even allow them in the party meeting. It will be the same in most parts of the country. The way that convention delegates are picked has everything to do with who has been a longtime party supporter and has the deepest pockets and has almost nothing to do with which candidate they are initially obligated to support. If none of the candidates reaches a majority before the convention then the party bosses will pick the nominee. Instead of a guarantee, I would ask you to mark my words so you can remind me later if I am wrong.
Thanks for the well-worded followup. I understand the reasoning, and it has validity in a way a blanket “the omnipotent Establishment” calls all the shots doesn’t.
I believe the Establishment will have control over 25-30% of the delegates, max. Some of these will get pressure to go Trump (northeast) or Cruz (west and south) from local activists who may not be delegates.
Right now, I suspect the 70% of the Establishment fears Trump more than Cruz, and they will go with the enemy they know rather than the enemy they don’t. Like a basketball team down 8 points in the closing seconds they are fouling just to keep the game alive, even as all moves means more delegates for an enemy.
They talk big, ESPECIALLY the Karl Rove types, right before the fall. The Tennessee problem you mention is disheartening (Cruz has decent organization there, too), and Ryan is not a good man for running the convention. We have seen how their predictions have played out so far. NO ONE knows how the first convention with full blown social media, a huge discontented class that cannot be all locked out, and two anti-establishment players with different strengths and committed followings at the same time will play out. It won’t be pretty. Early, I thought that the only way the all-out war could be avoided is if the Establishment was smart enough to meet us half-way and put its weight behind Scott Walker. But noooooo, they had to go all in with John Ellis Bush until all of the somewhat palatable alternatives (for them) were gone-zo. And here we are.
I don’t pretend to know what will happen, but I am personally unwilling to abandon a man I personally trust to shrink government and be consistently pro-life just yet. He has shown a determination to win, as does Trump. In this convention, it will be wise to have as many anti-establishment types who also happen to be decent parliamentarians available. Cruz can bring that. Trump may have some, but not as many.
I am SO looking forward to one of them coming to out of this convention as the Republican nominee, and for all of us to get together again.
I have marked your words. We will see.