Trump had an RCP average of 38 in Arizona and won it with 47%. Ted was at 25 and finished with 25% in AZ.
That is true, Trump can over perform polls
Polls just have been wrong this season
I think it is a combination of new voters and the difficulty of polling them
And of course turnout, Trump does very well with high turnout primary situations.
He also over performed polls in south Carolina and New Hampshire as well
The only states he has underperformed in are caucus states. I think the whole stand around and discuss your vote thing, stand on one leg while balancing an apple on your head just isn’t appealing to the voting public. So caucuses are geared towards the party die hards and don’t pick up new participants like primaries do.