“Bad ideas” clearly outnumber “good ideas” but they impact the survival of an individual and its ability to pass on the trait. Extinction Events are where the environment changes so drastically that most creatures cannot individually survive and the kill off doesn’t give time for adaptation.
If you look at the various extinction events, you will see that they vary from a snowball earth to a fireball and resulting cloud cover that kept the normal cycles of plant life from happening for some time (years). The Permian extinction resulted from a poisoned atmosphere and ocean from volcanic flows and coal deposit fires. For most species, there was no change that could save them. However some plants and animals did survive and in the period afterwards there was an explosion of new creatures evolved from the survivors and of the survivors we still have many.
The problem with taking a theory of evolution as a fundamental fact, is that one never finds a probability hill steep enough to call a halt to it.
And remember these hills work both ways. They have to (1) be climbed up; and (2) not be fallen down.