Posted on 03/26/2016 7:56:52 AM PDT by conservativejoy
Donald Trump has not won a majority of the vote in any state he's won. Ted Cruz has done it twice, in Wyoming and Utah.
Trump's enormous unpopularity with the majority of voters is a telling indicator that he simply cannot win a general election. With his constant attacks on women, whether they be Megyn Kelly, Carly Fiorina, or Heidi Cruz, Trump's paltry appeal among women cripples him even further.
As expert mathematician Nate Silver pointed out on Friday, if women sour on Trump, the results of his efforts in the general election would look like this:
For all of Trump's talk of winning; he only has won consistently when he was facing a plethora of candidates. In one on one matchups with Ted Cruz or Hillary Clinton, polls show he loses.
Silver also offered a projection of how one-sided a prospective Hillary Clinton-Trump matchup would be, asserting Clinton would win 374 electoral votes and Trump would win 164.
For all of Trump's talk of winning; he only has won consistently when he was facing a plethora of candidates. In one on one matchups with Ted Cruz or Hillary Clinton, polls show he loses.
Silver also offered a projection of how one-sided a prospective Hillary Clinton-Trump matchup would be, asserting Clinton would win 374 electoral votes and Trump would win 164.
See my #180 if you are still following your own thread!
I forgot to emphasize in my final paragraph that nationalism is not enough in a candidate. It is merely one of several minimum qualifications. I just don’t see many of the other minimum qualifications in Trump.
(The stratification of the demographic voting is what unfortunately buttresses the bad news for Trump versus Hillary.)
Hey, none of what I have said is liberal snarkiness on my part, so you guys need to quit taking obscene potshots at the bearer of really bad news for you FRumpsters.
(BTW, I suspect that I am actually a lot more of a conservative than any of you guys are. [In fact, that's precisely why I don't like Trump any more than I like the GOPe RINOs.])
Use your head, If trump pulls from all Demographics and is beating all others with Dems minorities etc. And running against Hillary.
You are believing polls that say Hillary can win. Should give you a clue, That or you have a real bad memory of the last few elections and the direction they have been going.
Hillary's backers don't give a fig for her obvious criminality. They think Queen Hillary ought to be regarded as above the law.
We need to remember that hardcore Dems are lawless folks. Since the days of Bill Clinton, they have obviously come to regard politics in much the same way Joe Montana regards football: Joe whitewashed the Patriots' history of cheating by saying if you aren't cheating, you aren't trying hard enough.
This attitude of lawlessness should remind us that the Dems WILL cheat BIG TIME in the POLLING PLACES, so we cannot count on winning any squeakers. Worst of all, I have no specific reason to doubt the polls that say that Cruz and especially Kasich both beat Hillary, whereas Trump loses badly to Hillary.
The most serious obstacle that Trump definitely faces is the fact that the majority of Americans actually regard Trump unfavorably--and this is not just a few elitists in the GOP. I'm afraid that Trump's frequent victories over the other candidates have given false hopes to Trump supporters. I think it is ominously significant that Trump can't even win a majority of Republican support in any of the primaries.
In short, Trump has apparently hit a historically low ceiling of support nationally and even in his own party.
The unfavorable judgment of Trump by a majority of Americans and evidently even a majority of Republican voters, may seem preposterous, may be unbelievable to Trump's supporters, but as someone who doesn't like what one Trumpster friend of mine called Trump's over-the-top __hole charisma, I assure you the unfavorability numbers are as real as a heart attack.
I just don't see any way for a doubling-down ___hole to turn this around. I think Trump's rather bizarre instincts for political fighting will widen the gap against Hillary, not close the gap.
In short, I think you need to crank into your thinking how many people despise Trump, many for bad reasons, but many for good reasons, I'm afraid. The NeverTrump Republicans are a pretty sizing voting bloc--perhaps even a huge chunk of that majority of Republicans that has already voted for anyone but Trump--at this time, for Cruz or Kasich rather than Trump.
The Cruz-plus-Kasich totals are very, very bad news for Trump. This bad news ain't going away. And of course, the Republican Party's original "clear delegate majority" rule--still in effect since Day One of the Party, is designed to weed out even seemingly promising candidates who likely cannot mobilize enough Republican voters to beat the Dems.
Changing the rule just because Trumpsters may demand it would be a very, very bad idea--even if it winds up letting the GOP's elitists (yuck!) pick a candidate to run against Hillary. This mess (yeah, it's a mess), is what happens when a leading candidate appalls or otherwise pisses off not just the elitist politicos but the majority of the Party's voters.
***
In short, the only way to beat Hillary's hardcore rock-solid numbers, including her inevitable cheating in the vote tally, is to have massive turn-out for Trump. And in this election, the Independents aren't going to turn the tide for Trump. Trump needs high Republican turnout--which practically all of the national polls are saying he won't get even against Hillary. I submit that many of the NeverTrump crowd are Mark Levin followers who would ignore Levin's pleas to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
We'd better not doubt that. Our country is at stake.
Donald Trump has built his huge and successful business by a faithful commitment to and consistent follow through of his promises.
Our President must be a fighter not a chatte inefficace like Ted Cruz(Google can translate). Trump is the only candidate that will win and "Make America Great Again. "
And furthermore, Ted Cruz was born in Canada to a foreign born parent which makes him ineligible to be President of the United States!
the_doc You do realize citing polls to support your position on polls that’s completely opposite to election history and logic is a boot-strapping argument. She has no crowds, no small donors, the only thing she has is the Dem Machine and its not that big anymore as seen by the last few elections.
Doesn't he have multiple bankruptcies? (I dunno. Just asking.)
Besides, running a bunch of businesses, whether into the ground or not, does not even begin to qualify Trump as CEO of the U.S. government. Herbert Hoover's supposed qualification for POTUS was his business background. He was pretty much a disaster as President. The United States is a Constitutional Republic, not a business.
(Oh, maybe we could draft George Soros at a brokered convention. Never mind that he is an egotistical fool and a Progressive crony-capitalist to boot.)
...by a faithful commitment to and consistent follow through of his promises.
Isn't the Trump University fraud case scheduled to go to trial some time this summary? (I will not pre-judge Trump. I will merely point out that his reputation may not be as stellar as you have suggested. The whole mess could be a big deal during the general election.)
Our President must be a fighter...
FReeper friend, surely you realize that the wrong kind of fighter in political governance will prove to be a loser--for example, a guy who destroys the GOPe and picks off some low-lying fruit of a few disenchanted Dems and Independents but who also goes on, with slashing-and-burning name-calling and slanderous accusations and overt obscenities, to alienate the majority of conservative Republican voters.
Trump has far too much ego--which pumps him up to shoot off his vicious mouth to the delight of folks who are as crass as the spectators at the Circus Maximus--and far too little wisdom.
(This was one of the underlying themes of the thread we are on. Heck, Trump is not merely unpopular nationally, but also weirdly unpopular within his own Party. See my previous post to Mechanicos for elucidation of the bad news for Trump.)
...not a chatte inefficace...
I speak French, and I would point out that the word the French use more often for pejorative purposes is probably their word minette, not chatte. (You're welcome.)
...like Ted Cruz(Google can translate).
You are overlooking the fact that Cruz almost singlehandedly stood up against the GOPe establishment, occasionally even winning (e.g., against the Gang of Eight). That arena was not at all favorable--media-wise--but anyone who notices this and still calls Cruz an ineffectual pussy is. let's say, fundamentally dishonest.
(Besides, if Trump and the media had not turned all of the "debates" into Roman circuses rather than genuine debates, the inffectual pussy Cruz would have cleaned Trump's clock. [I am sure you already realize this, higgmeister. Trump definitely does.]
Trump is the only candidate that will win and "Make America Great Again."
The Rah, Rah cheerleading won't get you as far as you think it will. Thoughtless excitement by you Trump cheerleaders could actually turn the country over to Hillary. (Again, the article at the top of the thread is monumentally serious.)
And furthermore, Ted Cruz was born in Canada to a foreign born parent which makes him ineligible to be President of the United States!
The majority of our legal scholars disagree with you. Following an Originalist viewpoint--which has to key on the Framer's intent--the intent of the Framers centered not so much on the matter of birthplace soil as the matter of natural loyalty by virtue of possessing full citizenship from one's very birth.
Under U.S. law, Ted Cruz was born a U.S. citizen by virtue of his mom's American citizenship, not subsequently naturalized. That is the idea of "natural born citizenship" that the courts will uphold as they did for Goldwater and for McCain, I believe. (Besides, Cruz's loyalty to the U.S. is unimpeachable. That is why he has fought so hard and so thanklessly for people like me and even you.)
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BTW, I don't think Obama is a U.S. citizen at all--because I submit that he was not born a U.S. citizen and was never even naturalized. (But that's a different story.)
Yeah, it’s really weird isn’t it?
U.S. Election forecasting guru Nate Silver's forecasting firm http://fivethirtyeight.com, that got the 2015 UK general election just as badly wrong as he the previous 2010, have been busy putting up a smoke screen of excuses as to why they got it wrong once more
And just in case we are inclined to say, "Oh, that was just push-polling stuff; the Independents and disenchanted Dems will break for Trump against Hillary," I would offer another very important data set that is NOT corrupt.
I am referring to the fact that Trump has never broken the 50% level with the Republican base--and this despite his vaunted momentum from a string of victories (which would ordinarily put him over 50% well before now). My point here is that Trump has an oddly low ceiling of popularity even with Republicans.
This distinct and stubborn dislike of Trump by the majority of Republican voters would tend to give credence the claims made in other polls that Trump's overall national popularity is terrible, even lower than Hillary's, perhaps.
I can personally assure you that Trump's unpopularity with Republicans is not just a matter of Trump's unpopularity with GOPe guys. In the conservative circles I live and work in, we don't like the GOPe--but we don't like Trump, either.
We regard Trump as another weird sort of RINO, this time a RINO who could finally seal our national doom by his ego--i.e., daring to take on Hillary when he has burned too many bridges with Constitutional conservatives.
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