I was shocked to learn that a lot of delegates remaining (in particular those in Penn) are uncommitted. That affected my confidence that Trump could get to 1237 also.
They ignore 54 delegates in PA (it has 71, not 17) because by some arcane rule they are somehow uncommitted. I have to believe most of them go to Trump.
I think he also shortchanges Trump in NY, and likely CA.
And those are just the three states I looked at. Silver works for the NY Times. They have an agenda.
Interesting commentary on the individual states rules here:
http://blog.constitutioncenter.org/2016/03/the-gop-nomination-math-confusing-and-complicated/
This guy’s math is fuzzy
Debunked.
He thinks PA only has 17 delegates!
Keep posting though...
This is from the same guy who thought Arizona would go to Cruz.
What I like is that this prediction is basically worst case scenario - more likely he’ll eke out the number needed.