No worries, just facts.
Rules? Please, this is about voters, their choices, and their loyalty, and the consequences when the powers that be ignore them.
How this will play out.
If a candidate gets close and no other is within 100s of delegates and the GoPe, thru the convention rules denies that candidate the nomination this follows: The emotions which have driven the rise of Trump and Cruz will be unforgiving in their distaste for the GoPe. Hillary wins, the GoPe is done as viable national political party, GoP loses seats in the Senate and House.
Where will a coalition of conservatives and moderates ever be able to come together as a party to again win the Presidency. Demographics are screaming in the other direction.
Better hope Trump gets to 1237. Cause Cruz can’t there. Plus Cruz better enthusiastically endorse him. The fate of the nation depends on it.
Should be interesting. I can’t tell what will happen. But it is fun to predict.
Goldberg’s general point has been that if Trump wins the nom, Hillary wins the election, and if Trump fails to win the nom, Hillary still wins the election. In each scenario, no one will unite at the level needed to win. At the moment, I think this is accurate. I hope it changes though.
Anyway, let’s have some fun and guess...
I think that Trump will not get to 1237, and that Cruz and Kasich will stay in until the convention. (Note, I’m probably wrong and starting in NY primary Trump will sweep and CA goes heavy Trump and it’s over. But the below scenario is more interesting to think through for me)
Step 1 at the convention will be to get rid of the rule requiring candidates on the ballot to have won 8 states. That rule is only 4 years old and will be tossed out by a vote, not a conniving cabal, but the same method convention and party rules are done normally.
Then there will be a chase by Trump to get the many unpledged delegates and to make a deal with Kasich about his delegates (some of which apparently can be reassigned, each state is different) and get to 1237.
If Trump gets to 1237 on the first ballot, he is the nominee. (obviously)
If Trump cannot get to 1237 on the first ballot, then the process is wide open (them’s the rules!) and then we’ll see if Trump the dealmaker participates in a negotiation with other candidates like Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio with delegates and some “yugely greeeat deeal” is found and everyone can be happy. My prediction is no, but this would be threading the needle.
Then after that we have a full open convention. It has happened before and the republic survived. Then all bets are off. I have no idea what would happen. Because a majority of the delegates are Trump and Cruz friendly, I cannot imagine a Romney or Bush type winning in an open convention. Maybe Perry or Walker?
Who would have predicted we’d be here? So there are probably many new things to come the next few months.