Posted on 03/21/2016 9:33:20 AM PDT by PJBankard
Y2 Analytics did a poll in Utah showing Ted Cruz up by 24%. I have Cruz winning Utah, but I don’t think he will get 50% of the vote. The poll shows Kasich in second place with 29% of the vote and Trump 3rd at 11%. I believe the order of finish will be Cruz, Kasich and Trump, but Trump will get more than 11% and Kasich won’t get 20%.
[SNIP]
In reading the story in the Salt Lake Tribune, it mentions Scott Riding.....
[SNIP]
Up until last month Scott worked for Jeb Bush...........
[SNIP]
Y2 Analytics is, by my research, a partisan polling outfit that was with Jeb Bush until he quit. And there is evidence that they (Scott are both Anti-Trump and pro Cruz. It cannot be determined if they were paid to conduct this poll, what the internal data was, how the poll was weighted, what areas were called, etc. etc
(Excerpt) Read more at varight.com ...
Must be the strong pull of the powerful Mitt Romney
< /sarc >
Related....
Busted! Utah poll showing Cruz ahead at 50% is fake
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=11662
Cruz has underpolled this cycle. So you’re saying his lead is more like 30 or 35 percent?
My expectation is Trump “11%”. If it is more than that ,it is another huge victory for TRUMP!!
I really expect Cruz to cruise in Utah. Mormons will carry him all the way. I’ve already convinced myself that Utah doesn’t matter. If Trump picks up a few delegates I’ll be very pleased.
Local Utah media has been flooded with these polls. The only local pollster with any credibility, Dan Jones and Associates, hasn’t been heard from since last September as far as I can tell.
Cruz will probably win, but this is unchartered territory, anything can happen. Tuesday night will be interesting.
I’m sure Cruz will win in Utah but I believe that Trump is being under reported.
Utah? Are they followers or thinkers? You decide.
Trump for President. America needs salvation.
If you don’t believe that one, how about this one.
Trump 21
Cruz 42
Rubio 17
Kasich 13
Cruz +21
Taken between 3/8 - 3/15
However, if he does not hit the 50% mark, the delegates are evenly divided among all of the candidates with at least 15% of the total. Which means if Cruz gets 49% and Trump gets 15% and Kasich comes in somewhere in between, Cruz will get 14 delegates and Trump and Kasich will get 13 delegates each.
Woah! I did not realize that. That is pretty significant. So if Cruz gets just 49% and Kasich and Trump are able to get to 15%, then Cruz will only end up with 14 delegates instead of 40 and the states will effectively be a three-way tie.
This could be a very good night for Trump after all. If Trump wins AZ and American Samoa, then splits Utah, he could come away with 80 delegates to Cruz's 14.
Aren’t you forgetting how the polls so accurately predicted Ted’s stunning victory over Trump in Michigan? Why would you doubt them now?
Cruz, from what I’ve read needs 89% of the remaining delegates. IF Trump wins Arizona and Cruz gets all of the delegates in Utah it would be a 58/40 night. That’s Not 89% of the delegates so he’ll be worst off after the night (if that’s how it plays out). Trump on the other hand needs 54% of the remaining delegates which means he will have done better than required on the night (59%). So for Cruz to stay on his current track he needs to win Arizona AND Utah with over 50%. That would give him 100% of the delegates and that would give him a bump to his current pace. Just keeping things in perspective.
“Y2 Analytics did a poll in Utah showing Ted Cruz up by 24%. I have Cruz winning Utah, but I don’t think he will get 50% of the vote. The poll shows Kasich in second place with 29% of the vote and Trump 3rd at 11%. I believe the order of finish will be Cruz, Kasich and Trump, but Trump will get more than 11% and Kasich won’t get 20%.”
FYI, I am not a Cruz supporter (not now - I’ll vote for him happily in November if he’s the nominee), but a Trump supporter...so I’d love for Cruz to get any number under 50% in UT - but I don’t follow the math of it from your example.
Now, there ARE other polls, and they have Cruz at under 50% - but that is a completely different issue.
Mormons can be very strange people.
If you read his reply to a comment below in page, I believe the order he initial stated was a typo. He sates in his reply that Trump would be 2nd.
If Cruz wins Utah it’ll be because Mormans vote for whoever the Morman leadership want them to vote for. They are a cult with no mind of their own.
Those who are against Trump most likely have a financial interest in keeping the multi-trillion dollar gravy train of corruption rolling at full speed. This includes government dependents of all sorts, government employees, government contractor slugs, chicken hawks, political hacks, media hacks, education flunkies, environmental whackos, social service slugs, druggies, welfare slugs, and other assorted slugs dependent on corrupt government.
Those who are for Trump want the corruption ended, and want the USA to survive.
No bias here.
I am worried about the vote by internet. Cruz can steal that easily.
That one is great. Keep Cruz under 50 percent.
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