I am of the opinion that the GOP has re-organized or consentrated into 3 large camps:
Conservatives with about 20% of the base and is growing.
GOPe who have been in power but are now declining, also about 20%.
The “dissatisfied” movement who are republicans who are basically pissed off at the Dems AND THE GOP. They dont like the GOPe because of perceived failure to live up to promises. This is composed of a diverse mix of everything that is not in the prior two camps. Trump has successfully read this dissatisfaction and is giving this group a candidate to support.
All three represent about 80% of the party in total. The remaining 20 percent is smaller groups of everything from libertarians to social conservatives, and single issue voters.
The GOPe for a long time has been in power and they dont like the idea of loosing that power to an outsider / upstart. That is why they have been fighting so hard against conservatives and the Tea Party.
Most conservatives that I have talked to do not like Trump because there are several positions that he has taken that do not align with the conservative agenda. However, because he is not the GOPe candidate, he tends to be someone they can hold their nose for and support in the General election.
So my reading of the tea leaves looks like this.
- If Trump wins the nomination, the conservatives will reluctantly support. Their enthusiasm will depend on how Cruz is treated after the nomination. If Cruz is in the VP, Attorney General or slotted for the SCOTUS, there will be much conservative support. The GOPe, will tend to split. Some will hold their nose, others not so much. Trump’s populism may be enough to bring Independent voters to the polls by a large enough margin to make up for the lack of GOPe support.
- If Cruz wins the nomination, the dissatisfied voters can support him but the enthusiasm may not be there. The GOP will fight against a Cruz nomination. He MIGHT also win the General IF Trump acknowledges and supports him. Tough to win if your party is opposing you.
- If anyone OTHER than Trump or Cruz wins the GOP nomination, the GOPe will support that candidate BUT FEW, IF ANYONE ELSE WILL. There will not be a “hold your nose” and support the nominee. IOW, the GOP gets shellacked in the general. I can even see a Trump/Cruz independent ticket that significantly beats the GOP but might not win the General
Terrific reading of the tea leaves. When we’re done sniping at each other after Cleveland, I hope leaves 1 and leaves 2 can see that we need to unite.