Trump is very likely to pick a guy like Kasich. He’s the governor of a must have swing state and he’s a faithful party foot soldier like Biden. He will do what he’s told and not try to stick a knife in Trump’s back every other day like Rubio or Cruz would.
I’m starting to think the same, and for the same reasons you cite. Traditionally the VP is there to “balance the ticket” (i.e., help deliver an important swing state) and otherwise not try to upstage or embarrass the candidate. Trump doesn’t need a flamboyant or controversial partner and Kasich fits the bill as a dutiful soldier who will help with the key state of OH and the rest of the rust belt.