I think this death knell for the establishment is a bit early to write.....
Trump and Cruz will most likely combine to roughly 50% of the vote +/- in the south, how that will be broken up will really be a matter of how well Trump does attacking Cruz and how well Cruz handles it. Given the ads released yesterday in SC, I’d put my money on Trump chipping away at Ted... The kids playing with dolls ad isn’t going to sway anyone IMHO, and while Trumps attack ad is rather traditional, I suspect his tact will be more effective.
With that said, don’t count out the establishment, while I agree with the fact, with the establishment vote fractured its impossible for any of them to win, and NH did not move that fracturing any closer to ending... The difference between SC and Super Tuesday is a full week.. IF, and I admit this is a big IF, IF one of these establishment candidates comes out the clear winner, a week is more than enough time to begin to coalesce the establishment voters toward them. Trump and Cruz are going to be busy with each other, because frankly neither of them can win a 3 man race at this point, while the other is still viable. That doesn’t mean that either of them could not win a 2 man head to head race.... just that as long as its a 3 man race, their combined totals of 50-60% of the vote, will lose via plurality to the 3rd candidate.
If the establishment hasn’t picked a main guy before super Tuesday, then it becomes difficult, but not impossible for any establishment player to win, less and less likely by the day, but that doesn’t mean its impossible. If it winds up dropping to a 2 man race, and Trump or Cruz truly do have a ceiling of 35-40% of the vote, the establishment candidate can slowly and methodically win the delegate count... I don’t think that’s going to happen, but this is politics folks.... Rubio just dropped 10 points in 2 days because he shot himself in the head point blank... no one would have predicted that last saturday afternoon.
We shall see how this plays out... my money at this point still says Trump for the win... but time will tell.
Romney won a bunch of states at 30%-40% of the vote. Trump can do the same, IMO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
Very good reply!
After SC it should be a two man race assuming one of the establishment candidates doesn’t consolidate the establishment vote there. Which doesn’t look likely.