Posted on 01/23/2016 4:11:56 PM PST by jstaff
Some time back I remember reading about which states a candidate needed to win to be able to all but avoid the chance of facing a brokered nominating convention. I don't remember the details, and several states have different rules on bound delegates, and different numbers of delegates than they did when I read the study. Does anyone know if there is anything out there that is current, and is it even possible now?
cue paranoid posts about the sinister and shadowy (yet never fully defined) “establishment” taking something from someone.
J, have you seen the size of Donald Trump’s rallies? This this is going to be over by April 2016. If it were anyone but Trump the media would have called it over by now.
Considering no votes have been cast, it’s certainly still possible
Everything about the primaries:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-by.html
For anyone with any question about any primary.
Your question takes quite a bit of research that I believe has been done in an article.
Hope someone has it bookmarked.
BTW, Paul Ryan is the Chairman of the Republican Nominating Convention... doesn’t that give you confidence it will be fair LOL!
indeed. and the fact that trump is about to walk away with the nomination proves that “the establishment” isn’t calling the shots.
Can you deny the RNC changed the rules to put outsider candidates at a disadvantage?
Jeb. was to be the guy. One only needs to look at the contortions they’ve gone through since Jeb. was relegated to the back seat.
The people who support Trump are calling the shots.
Not a likely scenario in my view. I think the nomination will be pretty much sewn up by April. Also, I suspect that the rat nomination will be sewn up just slightly later. Her thighness is about to feel the bern.
Cue Vincent Price sinister laughter.
The earlier states tend to have proportional allocation of delegates. The later states tend to be winner take all. The primary system is designed to produce a nominee during the primary process. The chance of the decision going to the convention is very minute.
For more on delegate allocation:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
Well, the Nevada Republican caucus is rigged to the detriment of the average voter, I can tell you that. It is on a Wednesday night from 5:30 to 9:30. The Democratic caucus on the other hand is on a Saturday starting at 11:00 am.
I think that the Democrats should be more concerned about this. This, in fact, seems to be a potentially likely scenario for them. Say, Hillary garners a majority of delegates, but, for some, ahem, reason, is unable to carry on. Or say, she only has a plurality, but has to defer because she is being carted away by the authorities. The delegates hold a first ballot, no one wins. Then (and please, do not hesitate to correct me on this), the delegates are free to cast their ballots for anyone they want. This could be Joe Biden. This could be Al Gore. This could be John Kerry. Hell, this could be Nancy Pelosi. It would be a nightmare. It would also be the kind of scenario all of us political junkies live for. Que sera, sera.
By GOP rules, first round is a bound vote. As such, any candidate that gets 1,236 (used to be 1,144) delegates basically wins, there will not be any later ballots.
Brokered convention only happens if no one gets to that number. If that is the case, from 2nd ballot on, the delegates are free to vote how they feel.
While I am not a fan of Time.com, they do have a good reference page http://time.com/4059030/republican-primary-calendar-2016-nomination-convention/
Brokered convention? Who are today’s political power brokers? I don’t think there is any such thing. A candidate could be picked after several floor votes, but I don’t see any deals coming out of a smoke filled room.
So you don’t know. Thanks.
So you've decided to ignore the fact that the GOP changed the Primary and Caucus rules so that no state can be "all-or-nothing" until March 16 (that's the first 24 states), and simultaneously mandated that a candidate must win an outright majority in at least 8 states, and that with so many candidate, not one person has been over fifty percent yet in any state, including the crowd-drawing Trump?
Does that sand taste yummy?
Awesome tagline.
Medved was talking up Kasich big time the other day and was certain that Trump would have nowhere near the number of delegates he needed by convention time.
What is wrong with these people?! Total disconnect from reality.
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